TODAY.AZ / Politics

Corridor battle. It's getting "hot"

01 July 2024 [16:04] - TODAY.AZ
By Leyla Tariverdiyeva

Everything changes very quickly. And we never cease to be surprised at how Baku manages to accurately calculate the future and find itself in the right place with its decisions at the right time.

The United States sees great potential for the supply of goods from Central Asia to global markets through Azerbaijan, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien said at a briefing in Baku last Friday.

The United States, and, looking at them, the European Union, have recently been very actively showing interest in creating transport and logistics infrastructure along the route of the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, TMTM). Americans and Europeans have already renamed TMTM to TMTC, where the last "K" stands for corridor.

On June 12, Kazakhstan and the European Commission organized an event to launch the TMTC Coordination Platform. The event was attended by representatives of Central Asian countries, states along the corridor route, international financial institutions and non-EU G-7 countries. Earlier, at the end of January, the Global Gateway global investment forum was held in Brussels, at which it was announced that the EU, through its structures, would allocate 10 billion euros for the development of TMTM. During the forum, the EBRD and the European Investment Bank signed various documents with the Central Asian countries.

All this would be fine if it weren't for the obsessive attempts to force Azerbaijan to accept Armenia into the game. In May, in Yerevan (?), the EBRD and USAID signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. 

The same O'Brien, delivering odes to TMTM in Baku, spoke about the great importance of supplying goods to global markets, "regardless of whether they go through Georgia." According to him, "there is a huge opportunity to supply goods through Armenia" to the Black and Mediterranean Seas, and this will reduce transportation costs and create "alternatives protected from geopolitical interference."
Protecting logistics routes from geopolitical interference has always been one of Baku's important goals.

Thanks to his diplomacy, the East-West route remains out of this influence for the time being. In the old days, bloody wars were fought for control of the Great Silk Road. The same thing is happening today, only the current battles are being fought in other ways. And you can see how events move into the "hot" phase. Due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions, Russia lost control of Eurasian logistics in the north, and the explosion in the Middle East and subsequent developments deprived the West of control over maritime trade routes coming from the East.

Hopes for a transit corridor from India to Europe through the Middle East, which was lobbied by the United States, failed due to the aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In September last year, a corresponding document was solemnly signed between the United States, the EU and a number of European states. 

But the outbreak of war put a fat cross on these plans, and the West turned its eyes back to the Central Asia-South Caucasus belt. In the current chaos and conflicts, the Middle Corridor has proven to be the safest, most stable and reliable route.
Currently, the Middle Corridor is not under external control. It is controlled by the so-called Turkic belt, that is, the countries through which most of its route passes. Azerbaijan plays a key role here, and it is absolutely impossible to bypass it in global logistics.

TMTM is an initiative of Azerbaijan, and it is not in the mood to put its offspring under third-party control and turn it into an instrument for the realization of someone's geopolitical interests. At one time, the same States, and after them the European Union, refused to support the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway project.

Recall that in 2007, the then Deputy Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, Matthew Bryza, while on a visit to Baku, said that the United States did not support the Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway construction project, but did not object to it either. Speaking about the reason, he explained that the United States wanted to implement projects that would cover all countries in the region. It was about Armenia. It is difficult to say how Washington imagined Azerbaijan's construction of a railway through Armenia under the conditions of the Armenian occupation of our territories. 

Apparently, they did not present it very clearly, so they did not interfere openly. As you know, the tone in such matters is always set by the United States, and after them, Europe also refused to support the project. 

Azerbaijan implemented it at its own expense, despite the sticks in the wheels and negative forecasts. No one believed that Azerbaijan would build a road. And he built it. Baku saw the prospect when planning the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars road. And today, the BTK is an integral part of the Middle Corridor. Without the implementation of this project, TMTM would not have been possible.

By the way, ten years after the statements of the representative of the State Department, in 2017, both the United States and the European Union welcomed the opening of the BTK and talked about the importance and indispensability of this corridor.

Transit through Georgia cannot be controlled, as decisions on the BTK route are made only by Baku, Ankara and Tbilisi. The fourth one is superfluous here. 

Western stakeholders did everything to prevent Georgia from giving China the construction of the port of Anaklia, intimidated by "Chinese control", but Tbilisi made an independent decision. 

The construction of the deep-water port of Anaklia makes sense only if cargo from China passes through it, Georgia said. This is a very expensive project, and it will be able to justify itself only by becoming a transshipment point for goods moving from China to Europe and back. In principle, the same can be said about any transport and logistics corridor from Asia to Europe. China is the EU's largest trading partner and accounts for a significant share of global trade, whether someone likes it or not.

To exclude it from this formula would mean to cross out all calculations of transit countries. They invest in projects not for the sake of the geopolitical interests of external players, but for their own benefit. Dancing to the tune of outside interests does not bring dividends. This has been proved by example by many countries of the world with great potential, which is managed by outsiders.

It has recently become known that Azerbaijan Railways CJSC (AZD) is considering the possibility of buying or building a terminal in China. According to Azerbaijani economists, the opening of an Azerbaijani logistics terminal in China will allow manufacturers from our country to enter the Chinese market faster and without unnecessary customs procedures. In addition, China itself has already bet on the Middle Corridor, therefore, the role of Azerbaijan and its railway network in this context will only increase.

The fact that China has made the final choice in favor of the Middle Corridor is evidenced by the fact that on June 6, China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to build a railway.

Discussions on this project continued for more than a quarter of a century, and only a new geopolitical alignment forced all parties to finally decide. Kyrgyzstan's railway network is poorly developed compared to its regional neighbors, which creates obstacles to connecting the country to international logistics. The project is estimated at
about $8 billion. 

Although Western think tanks intimidate Bishkek with the Chinese "debt trap", Kyrgyzstan understands that this project will be a breakthrough for the country, it will cease to be the periphery of its region. Kazakhstan has also begun to build a new railway to the border with China.

The creation of a modern railway network in Central Asia is dictated by both economic and political necessity, and the countries of the region cannot but be interested in becoming a link in this chain. Azerbaijan, for its part, is also interested in advancing this process. As a key country on the route of the Middle Corridor, he tries not to let this fire die out by throwing initiatives into it.

The TMTM automotive segment is also not ignored. At the end of last week, an important event took place in terms of the organization of regional logistics. For the first time, Azerbaijani trucks delivered cargo directly from China to Azerbaijan. That is, our carriers left China and reached Azerbaijan without overloading. And the delivery took only 6 days. 

The way of Azerbaijani trucks lay through Kazakhstan and Russia. Recall that in May, the first trial direct transportation from China to Europe was carried out by TMTM. A cargo caravan left Urumqi in China for one of the European countries, which proceeded through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey without transshipment of goods and multimodal transportation. It turned out that such transportation is much faster than multimodal, sea and rail and reduces travel time to 12 days.

For comparison, in early June, Armenia welcomed the first truck that arrived from China within the framework of the "Crossroads of the World" project promoted by Yerevan. The truck traveled from Shanghai via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran to Armenia in 20 days. It would have taken him at least a month to get to Europe by this route (provided there were normal roads). Well, we're just like that, by the way.

In any case, the main word on the Middle Corridor will be said by the railway. Motor transport is not able to cope even with the current volumes of transit. And when Central Asia is ready for direct rail transport, these volumes will increase significantly.

The persuasions of the Americans and Europeans to connect Armenia to the corridor look more than strange. Although the goal is quite clear. The passage of the corridor through RA will give Western players some access to control. It is no coincidence that the United States proposed to Armenia to develop a transport strategy based on the notorious "Crossroads of the World" concept. 

This is stated in the statement on the Armenia-USA strategic dialogue signed during James O'Brien's recent visit to Yerevan.

All this looks strange because Azerbaijan proposed to Armenia four years ago to build the Zangezur corridor and become part of international logistics. Armenia itself refused such an opportunity, and its Western guardians from the highest tribunes called this proposal by Baku almost an act of aggression. Meanwhile, the only suitable route for international cargo transportation through Armenia due to the difficult terrain is the road through Zangezur. All other options are difficult to implement and unprofitable. Now the countries on the route of the Middle Corridor are making efforts to eliminate "bottlenecks" in their territories. 

Meanwhile, is the United States proposing to create an "impassability" in the face of Armenia? If Mr. O'Brien and other Western officials mean the Zangezur corridor, let them not be afraid to pronounce this name.

International trade cooperation is what the modern world is based on. The development of human civilization also once began with the creation of trade routes. And today's world needs them especially.
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/250142.html

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