Russian analyst: Armenians may start to behave poorly with respect to Russia

How do you assess the recent moves by U.S. Congress House Committee on Foreign Relations and the Parliament of Sweden to adopt the resolution on the so-called "Armenian Genocide" ?

First of all, I want to say that "genocide", if it really took place, was a hundred years ago. Armenians suffered greatly because of their pro-Russian geopolitical views. In this case, Armenians themselves and Russians should show empathy with what happened at that time. But now let's see when and by whom this "genocide" was recognized. First, the U.S. Congress Committee adopted a resolution. Later the Swedish Parliament adopted the same decision. The Swedish parliament recognized the "genocide" so that Americans will not be alone in current situation.

Do you mean the Swedish parliament took this move under the U.S. pressure?

I am sure of this. Swedish have significant historical or geopolitical relations neither with Armenians nor Turks, Azerbaijanis and Americans.

Then why it happened precisely at this time?

It is because relations between Turkey and the United States have spoiled lately. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s their relations gradually cooled, and now the situation is on the verge of Turkey's withdrawal from NATO and reluctance to continue to integrate into the EU. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Ahmet Davutoglu said that it would be nice for his country to join the Eurasian alliance with Iran, Russia and China.

Moreover, Turkey is rapidly moving closer to Russia.

Turkey's is against Iraq adventure of the United States which threatens to ruin Turkey itself, because Americans do not hide their sympathy for Kurdish separatism. Thus, Turkey, in fact, comes from the zone of U.S. influence on all fronts.

And we have already witnessed how local government has arrested powerful Turkish military, who support withdrawal from NATO and oppose the U.S. on trumped-up charges of "Ergenekon" at the insistence of the United States. Meanwhile, the Government comes to understanding that that it should withdraw from NATO. America understands this, and it has recognized the "genocide" only at the level of the Congress Committee so as to try to put pressure on Turkey.

Will this situation somehow affect the resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

Recently, former Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said that the current situation will lead to war over Karabakh between Russia and Turkey. This is nonsense! Yes, Americans want the conflict over Karabakh to break out partly trying to push Armenia and Azerbaijan to this. However, both Russia and Turkey will do everything to ensure that conflict does not happen. Therefore, they act in solidarity.

Throughout history of development of bilateral relations, such a rapprochement took place at a time when Ataturk was in power. Moscow has very good relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey also has very good relations with Azerbaijan, and they are trying to improve relations with Armenia. And if we all work together, we can neutralize efforts of Americans to escalate the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Meanwhile, the Americans are trying to act mainly through Armenia. They put pressure on Armenia to raise the issue of recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state. However, they do not realize that it is impossible for several reasons. Suppose that tomorrow the international community will recognize Karabakh as an independent state. In this case the international community will demand return of Azerbaijanis there. This is human rights standards. We are all aware that return of refugees in this case will result in a conflict, of course. So, those persons in Armenia who are trying to rock the boat of Karabakh are not Armenia’s friends. They act in the interests of the U.S. against their Armenians.

So, on one hand, the United States supports Azerbaijan's initiative to return Karabakh through all possible ways and, on the other hand, is pushing Armenians to consolidate efforts aimed at recognition of Karabakh as an independent state. Everything is done with one purpose – to escalate tension in the region.

In your opinion, is the opening the Armenian-Turkish border seem possible under current situation?

I did not believe in opening of the borders even before these events happened. The initiative was put forward by the U.S. to show how Armenia is able to solve all its problems along with the United States without Russia. In my opinion, it was clear anti-Russia action. No more.

Of course, adoption of the resolution on "genocide" also causes a danger for the Armenian-Russian relations. Being happy at so-called "success", Armenians may start to behave poorly with respect to Russia. Thus, the U.S. pushes Russia to the side of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Moscow, however, will still try to maintain smooth relations because Armenia is closely linked with Russia.


H. Hamidov