Formula for Stability: Stronger Azerbaijan Means Stronger Peace

Calculating how to match Azerbaijan in strength or at least approach it is another mistake that official Yerevan should avoid in every possible way, despite what numerous experts and advisers say, advise or demand.

In this case, we are talking about military force. Armenian expert circles are very concerned about Azerbaijan's military buildup, believing that its goal is to put pressure on Armenia and extract additional "concessions" from it.

We tried to recall what "concessions" the Armenian side was forced to make under pressure from Baku, but we found nothing. A concession is when you have a legitimate right to something, but under pressure of force you give it up in whole or in part. Everything that Armenia has lost over the past six years does not belong to this category. Neither the liberated Azerbaijani territories, nor the exclaves returned to Azerbaijan, nor the border positions occupied by the Azerbaijani military - none of this was a concession, since it did not belong to Armenia. She's not giving in, she's retreating.

Today, no one expects any concessions from Yerevan either. The demands of the Azerbaijani side are legitimate and logical, especially regarding the peace process. These demands are based not on military superiority, but on the strength of Azerbaijan's position, the correct diplomatic strategy and the norms of international law. Although military superiority definitely exists, Baku does not rattle its weapons. He has enough other tools to achieve a just and guaranteed peace that leaves no loopholes for new claims against the country in the future.

Armenia will not have to concede anything, it just needs to eliminate the consequences of the evil that it has done in the region. Azerbaijan itself has done most of the work, but it only needs to provide legal guarantees of good neighborliness on its part. In particular, to amend the Constitution. And military-political guarantees are not her concern.

We are talking about this in connection with the comments that appeared in the Armenian media about the latest military purchases of Azerbaijan and the demonstration of the acquired equipment. In particular, we are talking about the JF-17C Block III Thunder fighters purchased for the Azerbaijani Air Force and their use in training flights. The first JF-17s were delivered to Azerbaijan in 2024, and in July this year, the fighters were officially demonstrated during a series of training flights.

The JF-17C was developed jointly by Pakistan and China. The Block III version brings Azerbaijan to the level of generation 4++ aviation. The fighters are equipped with modern weapons, including PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles with a range of over 140 kilometers.

Recently, Forbes magazine's lead author Paul Iddon devoted an article to enhancing Azerbaijan's defense capability. He regarded the purchase of 40 JF-17C Block III fighters as a key element of modernization. These purchases, Iddon writes, will provide Azerbaijan with the most powerful air force in the South Caucasus, both in quality and quantity.

The American publicist considers the purchase of Chinese HQ-9BE long-range anti-aircraft missile systems to be another serious contribution to strengthening Azerbaijan's defense capability. Etc.

All this has worried the Armenian expert community.

Military analyst David Harutyunov stated in an interview with the media that "Azerbaijan's approach to the peace process is based on military superiority over Armenia." According to him, Azerbaijan wants to dominate and therefore constantly strengthens the gap existing between it and Armenia, "so that Yerevan would not even think of resisting."

At the same time, the analyst wisely admits that Armenia has no alternative to continuing the peace process and that the Armenian authorities and society should approach the situation realistically. Harutyunov sees no way to balance the situation through rapprochement with the West and Iran, as there are no "real legal mechanisms to ensure that the superpowers will defend Armenia's interests rather than shift their attention to other issues at the most crucial moment."

The analyst admits that Armenia has no opportunities for a symmetrical response. She needs to act against her "main potential opponent" asymmetrically, he said, without specifying exactly how...

It seems that the neighbors should not worry too much when reading the news about Azerbaijan's military acquisitions. He is not going to fight with Armenia or anyone else. The country needs a strong army and dominance in the region so that neither Armenia nor anyone else decides to try to destabilize the situation in the region again. Only Azerbaijan can be a guarantor of stability, and it consistently reinforces this role. He is not arming himself against Armenia and is not making any expansionist plans. They will appear only if the Armenian side takes unwise steps in our direction.

Today, Armenia has no objective reason to expect military expansion from Azerbaijan or to see any ominous signs in its neighbor's arms purchases. Some of these reasons can be listed.

First of all, the military task has been completed - our internationally recognized territories have been liberated, and, as President Ilham Aliyev said, we do not need more. After the 2020 war and the restoration of full sovereignty in 2023, official Baku has repeatedly stated that the issue of the country's territorial integrity has been resolved. As a result, the strategic goal that has defined Azerbaijan's military policy for decades has disappeared.

Secondly, Azerbaijan needs stability to restore the liberated territories and implement economic projects. Investors are now attracted to the region precisely because the conflict is over and the two countries are moving towards peace. Baku, once again, has no views on the internationally recognized territories of Armenia. He is more concerned with the task of turning the South Caucasus into a transport and logistics hub. In this light, stability becomes not just a political goal, but an economic asset.

Thirdly, after the 2020 war, Azerbaijan's international status has increased significantly, and it is not going to lose it. On the contrary, Baku intends to strengthen it further, having achieved the establishment of a lasting and guaranteed peace.

Finally, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan takes international law seriously. The internationally recognized territory of a neighboring country is not an object of his interest.

Military analyst Harutyunyan is mistaken when he sees the threat of war in the strengthening of Azerbaijan. Just the opposite. The dominance of a country like Azerbaijan greatly reduces the likelihood of war and destabilization in the South Caucasus. The same cannot be said about Armenia. Azerbaijan's dominance promotes peace, while Armenia's strengthening will inevitably lead to a new destabilization. Unfortunately, there is no doubt about it. Therefore, Baku is doing everything necessary to prevent the second option. Having a neighbor with a negative past and an unconvincing present does not allow you to relax. Azerbaijan has significantly modernized its armed forces after 2020 and has a serious military potential. As long as Yerevan is moving in the right direction, this potential does not pose a threat to Armenians.

At the same time, Armenia's delaying of the peace process and its outspoken search for strong advocates do not improve the situation in the region and remain risk factors. However, it must be admitted that Yerevan has recently become very attentive to words. We are no longer talking about actions.