Armenian Railway Crisis: TRIPP and Real sovereignty

According to the Constitution, Armenia is sovereign and independent, but it has always been difficult to call these hypostases actually functioning. And this is not the fault of the current ruling team. This is the fault of Nikol Pashinyan's predecessors, the former leaders of Armenia, who sold their country to realize the "age-old dream" of the Azerbaijani territories. The impunity of the occupier and the silence of the Powers had to be acquired. In exchange for the silence of the world, the criminal leaders of the aggressor country did not even sell out, but distributed Armenia to everyone. Of course, the closest powerful neighbor, Russia, got the most. Iran also used the cave instincts of the Armenians for its own purposes, although it did not institutionalize these operations, thanks to which it can make big eyes today. But with Russia, everything was documented and backed up by interstate treaties.  

Nikol Pashinyan tried to start a change of course as soon as he came to power. But I found out that everything is covered here and the divorce will not be cheap for Armenia and it will not be possible to avoid international arbitration. In every sense of the word. Breaking contracts is a serious matter. The Karabakh clan arranged everything so that the country would follow the same course until the end of time. This was facilitated by the Karabakh conflict, which the clan used to justify its status as an outpost and a conduit for other people's interests.

Pashinyan did not dare to take steps in another direction until after the end of the conflict, Europe did not explicitly indicate its support. The new realities created by the 2020 war allowed the EU to reach out to Armenia more boldly, without risking spoiling relations with Baku. The interest in Armenia is purely political, while the interest in Azerbaijan has many sides.

Everything seemed to flow as usual, until TRIPP. You can drag your feet with the CSTO, you can pretend that there are no contradictions between membership in the EU and the EAEU. But what about the agreement signed with the Americans on the construction of a railway through Meghri, when the concession for the management of Armenia's railways will belong to Russia for two more years?

In this case, there is nothing to blame the daughter of the Russian railways SCR. Everything is written and scheduled in the contract. Armenia has never been able to create infrastructure, build roads, and even more so railways. Others always did it for her. Namely, the Russian side.

By selling off Armenia, Pashinyan's predecessors saw Russia not as a partner and friend, but as a guarantor of the status quo in the Karabakh conflict. No one interfered in the situation in the South Caucasus, considering the region to be Moscow's patrimony, because Yerevan strenuously created this illusion, hoping that the region would be bypassed, and over time the status quo would be quietly and imperceptibly accepted and recognized by all. The 44-day war showed the complete failure of these calculations. Despite the fact that Armenia was actually Russia's property, given the Russian ownership of strategic industries and strategic infrastructure, Moscow did not intervene in the war and did not prevent Azerbaijan from liberating its lands. It was a blow to the Karabakh clan.

For the real Armenia that Nikol Pashinyan wants to build, dependence is unacceptable. But how to get rid of it painlessly? What has been done has already been done and has taken root.

The other day, the Armenian Prime Minister stated that Yerevan's position on the railway remains the same.: This is Armenian property, and the Republic of Armenia should be able to use it as it sees fit. "We want to resolve this issue amicably, but also de jure there may be a question of making decisions on our part; if there are disagreements, we will consider them in arbitration," Pashinyan said.

There is no doubt that Pashinyan will be able to negotiate a "peaceful" change of operator. Earlier, Mikhail Kalugin, director of the 4th CIS Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, unequivocally stated that if the subsidiary of Russian Railways, the Southern Railway, has the concession right to manage the railways of Armenia, then the future "Trump Route" should also be considered in this logic. In addition, Kalugin recalled, TRIPP will mostly pass through the area of responsibility of the Russian border guards. In addition, he stressed, Armenia is a member of the EAEU, and it is obvious that the parties cannot do without Russia in this project.

Oleg Belozerov, the head of Russian Railways, answered Pashinyan. He stated that the Russian side is fully fulfilling all its obligations. According to him, the concession gave Armenia a modern railway, freeing the republic's budget from the costs of its restoration and maintenance. Russian Railways investments amounted to about $ 400 million. The restoration of the Armenia-Georgia railway, destroyed by the Debed River flood in 2024, was also carried out at the expense of the Reserve Fund of the Russian Federatiov, the head of Russian Railways, answered Pashinyan. He stated that the Russian side is fully fulfilling all its obligations. According to him, the concession gave Armenia a modern railway, freeing the republic's budget from the costs of its restoration and maintenance. Russian Railways investments amounted to about $ 400 million. The restoration of the Armenia-Georgia railway, destroyed by the Debed River flood in 2024, was  Belozerov said.

Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov was even more specific, pointing out that SCR is not a free asset of a Russian company, but an enterprise in which more than 30 billion rubles have already been invested. Everything is done within the framework of contractual obligations, and "if these obligations are unilaterally reviewed, and damage is caused to our investor, we will have grounds to demand compensation," the minister stressed and called baseless the words of the Armenian prime Minister that Russia should pay for the lease of railways.

Russian media pay special attention to the fact that Nikol Pashinyan started talking about railways three days after a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to media reports, the concession was not discussed during the conversation. Nevertheless, it is known that it has not been possible to reach an understanding on any issue, and Russia believes that Pashinyan's statements are related to this. In a word, we didn't agree.

Recall that in December last year, Nikol Pashinyan called on Russian partners to urgently engage in the complete restoration of two sections of the railway. We are talking about two short sections with a total length of about 12-13 kilometers. These are the Yeraskh section - the border with the NAR (about 1.6 km) and the Akhurik section - the border with Turkiye (about 12.4 km). In April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk announced that Russia, following an appeal from Armenia, was beginning negotiations on the restoration of these sites.

In other words, Russia, as can be judged from public information, did not refuse to comply with Yerevan's request. It is difficult to say what happened on the sidelines and why Pashinyan so toughened his rhetoric. Maybe the Russian side has set a condition for participation in TRIPP, but this is just a guess.

After coming to power, Pashinyan tried to end the Russian monopoly through the law. Four criminal cases were initiated against the SCR. But it didn't work.

One point should be clarified. Even if Russia retreats and TRIPP starts to be built, these communications will still not be fully Armenian property. It should be recalled that under the terms of the Mirzoyan-Rubio framework agreement, a joint company TRIPP Development Company (TDC) will be created. The American International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will become the owner of a controlling stake (74 percent). Armenia will get only 26 percent.

According to international rules, the concession agreement can be terminated, but the initiator of the termination will have to pay considerable compensation in the form of compensation to Russian Railways, cover the company's losses or the purchase price of assets. Armenia expects to prove in arbitration that during the years of the concession, the SCR has done nothing to develop the Armenian railways. Let's see what she does. Of course, the concession management does not revoke Armenia's ownership rights to its roads, but international agreements must be fulfilled, and there is nothing to object to.

But that doesn't mean there's no way out. I think Yerevan could rely on the American side in this matter. Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated that he has no intention of quarreling with Russia over Armenia. The appointment of Konstantin Sokolov, a native of Russia, as head of the TRIPP+ Enterprise Fund investment fund, who continues to maintain close ties with St. Petersburg, can be regarded as a compromise. Sokolov is slowly expanding his business in Armenia, acquiring its main assets. And this is suggestive.

It is possible that Pashinyan's rigidity is demanded by the European Union, which expects Yerevan to take decisive steps towards getting rid of Russian influence. But Pashinyan should think, first of all, not about how to please Europe, but about preserving the stability of his own country. It is always possible to find diplomatic solutions to problems. Let him see how Baku does it. Baku masterfully handles the most difficult situations. The fact that American interests are involved in the Megri communications project is a good opportunity to try to balance the situation without causing a crisis.

Nobody needs a crisis. Azerbaijan does not need it either, which has been waiting for Armenia to fulfill its obligations under the Trilateral Agreement for five years. Baku needs a road to Nakhchivan, so it is not interested in a clash of interests around this project, as the crisis will delay its implementation indefinitely.

The railways of Armenia are undoubtedly the property of Armenia. Like energy, this is a strategic area where no one can tell the Armenian side what to do and how to do it. But the country lacks real sovereignty to realize these intentions. It was necessary to start thinking about him when this sovereignty was being "pawned" in exchange for foreign territories. And now there's no one to be offended by. Now we need to find a way out.