Russian expert: "By stressing its isolation, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" became trapped by the same processes that occur around other unrecognized countries"

"Today Nagorno Karabakh occupies special place among the unrecognized countries", said Alexander Skakov, chief of department for problems of near abroad of the Russian Strategic Researches Institute, taking part in the international conference in the Nagorno Karabakh center.

"On the one hand, Nagorno Karabakh proved its political and economic independence and flexibility. On the other hand, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" distances itself from other unrecognized countries and in the result from Russia as well. Russia also does not strive for involving Nagorno Karabakh into its orbit and does not intend to spoil its positive relations with Azerbaijan.

Paradoxical situation emerged in the result-by stressing its isolation, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" became trapped by the processes and pressure of the other unrecognized countries", said Skakov.

According to him, "the intention of Brussels and Washington to break the status-quo, unfreeze the existent conflict, transform the system of international relations, established in the South Caucasus, did not bypass Nagorno Karabakh".

"Since the Moscow meeting of the OSCE Minsk Group in 1993, Nagorno Karabakh had been a conflict party, a participant of the negotiation process and remained that until autumn of 1997, despite the sharp resistance of Baku. Nevertheless, a number of factors, including the emerging internal crisis in Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan's growing prestige resulted in Minsk group's refusal to hold talks with participation of Khankendi under pretense of the urgent presidential elections in "Nagorno Karabakh Republic".

"Nagorno Karabakh Republic" is right to insist on its full participation as a conflict side in the negotiation process under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group. Baku is against it", said the Russian expert.

At the same time he noted that the said situation is unambiguous. "On the one hand, the status of Nagorno Karabakh, as a conflict side, has lowered, as the talks are held without its participation. On the other hand, "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" gets an opportunity to block the implementation of any peaceful plan without participation in the talks and Armenia is free in its actions.

Anyway, the non-participation of "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" in the negotiation process can not be considered logical, as the interests of Yerevan and Khankendi are not the same, though close to each others", said Alexander Skakov.

He said Russia distances itself from the search of ways of the conflict resolution, shifting the responsibility to the conflicting sides and other mediators. This reduces Russia's influence in the region, he thinks.

Speaking about possible renewal of hostilities in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, he noted: "Most officials in Azerbaijan do not rule out forced way of resolution in case there will not be any other peaceful solutions. Nevertheless, the variant of Azerbaijan's strengthening its position in the international arena and isolation of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh is the most important for Baku".

He noted that militaristic spirits are stronger among the military leadership of Azerbaijan than among the political one. "Generals develop plans of military revenge and start to believe in their possibility. The most surprising is that in line with some sources, the Azerbaijani military authorities also admit the variant of front attack to the "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" for outlet to the Karabakh defense, which seems quite unreal.

Anyway, the confidence about the possible revenge creates conditions for initiation of large scale military actions in case of any provocation. I admit that such militaristic spirits may also exist among the Armenian servicemen. In particular, Armenian mass medias admit that in case Yerevan and Khankendi are confident about Azerbaijan's readiness to war, they may undertake a warning attack. It seems to me that both scripts are possible only in the result of a large scale crisis in the whole region", said the Russian expert.

The current plans of the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be considered in the sense of their preparedness, he considers. Yet, he says that all of them are unreal and face insuperable obstacles in the current conditions.

"To overcome them requires either good will or peace-loving, which both sides do not have, or unilateral steps from one of the parties, demonstrating its good will, which is unreal so far. Today the only chance for the peaceful resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict on the long-term basis is a course for reconciliation of the peoples and rejection of the forced resolution of the problem", said Skakov.

/Regnum/