European double standards and their cost to peace in the South Caucasus

How to achieve peace in the South Caucasus? If you listen to European politicians and officials, it turns out that they know the answer to this question better than we do.

The Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, visited Yerevan and gave an interview to Public Television. The topic of the peace treaty was also raised in the conversation with the journalist. The Secretary General of the Council of Europe said that he had discussed this issue with Baku, informing him that "we want to move forward in this process." Berset praised Armenia for "taking a serious step in this direction." Most of all, the European official is worried that the topic of the peace treaty may be forgotten, and promised to take measures to prevent this from happening, God forbid. Apparently, it is not considered to leave the solution of the issue to the two countries themselves without interference in the process from outside.

"There is a risk that this topic may lose relevance in the global context, although it remains extremely important for the entire region. Our task is to constantly remind of the importance of the peace agreement, to continue negotiations and to exert friendly pressure on Azerbaijan to speed up the process," Berset said, regretting that the process is progressing very slowly.

The process is indeed progressing very slowly, but "friendly pressure on Azerbaijan" will not help speed it up. We are not talking about the attempts of unfriendly pressure, which are also being made. Putting pressure on Baku is the most unproductive way to solve problems. And European structures are already aware of this. The more active the attempts to persuade the Azerbaijani side to make certain decisions that are unfavorable to it, the less likely it is to resolve this or that issue.

Unfortunately, unlike Armenia, we are not spoiled by the friendliness of European officials and parliamentarians. But Mr. Berset represents Switzerland, a country that has never been particularly prominent in campaigns against Baku, and whose Foreign Ministry blocks initiatives that could harm relations with Azerbaijan. In addition, the new Secretary General of the Council of Europe has been in contact with the Azerbaijani side more than once recently, and these meetings, including the meeting on the sidelines of COP29 with President Ilham Aliyev, have left a good aftertaste. Therefore, we can trust in the friendly intentions of the current Secretary General of the Council of Europe.

Nevertheless, the wording must be chosen correctly. Mr. Berset is concerned about the decline in international interest in the topic of the peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, and we are concerned about the excess of this interest. Because international attention to solving problems in the South Caucasus has never been beneficial. Rather, it was harmful, because international, or rather Western, sympathies have always been and still remain on the side of Armenia in most cases. None of those who tried to mediate, whether before or after the war, was able to maintain equidistance and impartiality. Those who were capable of this, and those who sympathized with Azerbaijan, were not allowed to participate by external players who monopolized the mediation function. As a result, pressure has always been exerted on Baku.

No one has ever pressured Armenia to liberate foreign lands, and no one has pressed it on the issue of a peace treaty, although it has been slowing down the process for several years. On the contrary, European officials criticized Azerbaijan, condemning its unwillingness to sign a crude and not agreed document. The fact that Yerevan has finally agreed to all points is not the result of international pressure, but of Baku's diplomacy and the changed geopolitical conditions. In these new conditions, the allies, who dictated the line of conduct to Yerevan, themselves faced serious problems, and they became preoccupied with Armenian interests. Armenia was left virtually one-on-one with Azerbaijan, and they remembered how it all ended when it happened for the first time - in 2020. Hopes for the intervention of countries and organizations patronizing the Armenians, for the crushing decisions of international courts have become even more unrealistic than before.

It was a very reasonable step on the part of Yerevan, and it was taken without the participation of well-wishers from the EU or the Council of Europe. Now, by trying to "amicably" put pressure on Azerbaijan to speed up the process, external players are giving Armenia new hopes. The hope is that it is possible to conclude an uncertain peace, which Azerbaijan has always opposed, to take advantage of the preferences provided, and then let what happens. When all this ends with a new conflict, the well-wishers from Europe will not remember that Baku warned about the fragility of such a world. Moreover, Baku will be blamed for everything. After all, they accuse us of liberating their internationally recognized territories, although there is no logic in this.

That's exactly what we should be fighting - it's the forgetfulness, and sometimes the lack of information of the world about the prehistory of the 44-day war. For many in the West, the conflict between the two countries began on September 27, 2020, and the allies of the Armenians support this myth with all their zeal. But we will not forget and we will not let others forget. Azerbaijan remembers that during the years of the Armenian occupation, Armenia was never convicted of aggression against its neighbors, and angry resolutions were not passed against it. These resolutions were adopted in the same PACE against Azerbaijan, which suffered from occupation and ethnic cleansing. Today, the revanchist narratives of "Azerbaijani aggression" are supported by certain Western circles, and European officials weep over the fate of the Armenians of Karabakh, although they have not shed a tear over the tragic fate of a million Azerbaijanis.

We have already learned to treat this philosophically, but this does not mean that Azerbaijan is ready to yield and succumb to "friendly" pressure. Baku has specific demands on Yerevan, and the more outside actors try to help the Armenian side not to fulfill them, the more stringent Azerbaijan's demands will be. It is necessary to put friendly pressure on Yerevan in order to force it to hurry up with the steps, without which real peace is impossible. In this case, we do not put this word in quotation marks, because it has never been a problem for EU structures to be friendly to the Armenian side.

Those who really want to earn a place in paradise by achieving peace for two peoples face another very important task. Western circles should think about how to stop compromising themselves in the eyes of Azerbaijan with outbursts of anti-Azerbaijani activity. Provocative lobby groups are causing very serious damage to Europe's interests in our region. When the parliamentary structures of the European Union and the Council of Europe turn into venues for auto-dafe, it does not promote mutual understanding. It is worth recalling the outburst caused by the recent visit of the head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, to Baku. A wave of hysteria rose against her, she was bombarded with accusations for wanting to restore relations with Azerbaijan, which were almost destroyed by her predecessor. For a long time and carefully formed by Baku's opponents, the comfort zone was violated, and Kaya Callas became a symbol of this process.

A few days ago, the notorious member of the European Parliament, Xavier Bellamy, poured out his bile on this issue in an interview with the Armenian media. The Armenian lobbyist was beside himself with indignation. A lot of things angered him. Both the fact that Callas did not travel from Baku to Yerevan, and the fact that she made positive statements, and the fact that Azerbaijan once again began to position itself as a partner of Europe and a guarantor of its energy security. Bellamy's verbosity clearly showed how furious he was. He told me that he met Callas and told her his "fi." He did not disclose what the head of European diplomacy replied to him, arguing that it was a "private conversation," but, apparently, he did not hear anything encouraging. And the French EP deputy is very concerned. He demands "to restore the negotiating position with Azerbaijan, which will be much more demanding, much more decisive." The position that the EU held under Josep Borrell and that was archived by Kaya Callas. Bellamio cannot influence this, but he hopes that the European Commission, when making decisions on cooperation with Baku, will listen to the European Parliament.

I must say that the European Commission, as well as other EU governing structures, never really listen to the opinion of the European Parliament, especially in matters of foreign policy and energy security. Europe has strategic interests that cannot be correlated with the opinion of the lobby and other interested groups. They can't and won't.

By the way, on Tuesday SOCAR and the German company SEFE signed a contract for the supply of 1.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Azerbaijan to Germany.

We don't know how Xavier Bellamy got over this news, or if he did at all.