New South Caucasus emerging as old rivalries give way to connectivity [Op-Ed]

By Ulviyya Poladova | AzerNEWS

The recent visit of Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, to Georgia comes at a moment when geopolitics feels unusually brittle. Global supply chains are under strain, energy routes are increasingly contested, and dependable partnerships are in short supply. For much of the past three decades, the South Caucasus was viewed through the prism of conflict, a region which is defined less by opportunity than by impasse. External actors, despite repeated interventions, often prioritised their own rivalries, leaving local solutions elusive.

That context is now shifting. For the first time in a generation, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia face a credible opportunity to reimagine the region around shared economic and strategic interests. Aliyev’s visit signals more than diplomatic routine; it reflects a calculated attempt to anchor a new regional logic – one based on connectivity rather than confrontation.

A prospective peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, now appearing closer than at any point in recent memory, is central to this shift. Projects such as the Zangezur corridor or the TRIPP initiative could redraw the economic map, positioning Azerbaijan as a key transit hub between East and West while offering Armenia a long-denied outlet to global markets. The implications are not merely economic. They point towards a post-conflict order in which infrastructure replaces ideology as the organising principle of regional relations.

Crucially, this transformation does not diminish Georgia’s role. On the contrary, it reinforces it. The established Azerbaijan–Georgia partnership – long underpinned by energy and transport corridors – could evolve into a broader trilateral framework, integrating Armenia into a system that expands transit capacity and deepens regional interdependence. Such a configuration would not only diversify trade routes but also recalibrate the South Caucasus as a space of cooperation rather than fragmentation.

The timing is significant. With tensions escalating in the Middle East and risks mounting around the Strait of Hormuz, alternative corridors are gaining strategic urgency. Infrastructure such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor already position the region as a critical artery linking the Caspian to European markets while bypassing traditional chokepoints.

None of this guarantees success. The legacy of conflict remains, and alignment between three historically divided states will require sustained political will. Yet the direction of travel is increasingly clear. As Aliyev put it, the South Caucasus is beginning to take shape as a “centre of peace, security and cooperation”.

Whether that vision materialises will depend not on rhetoric, but on the ability of regional actors to convert fragile momentum into lasting structure. For now, the region stands at an inflection point, which is no longer defined solely by its past and looks promising to be secure in its future.