Iran’s lost oil incomes equal expenses for building 70 nuclear PPs

Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Shamseddin Hosseini finally revealed that Iran's oil export revenues have halted and customs taxes incomes decreased.

Hosseini said government income for the current solar year was expected to reach $117 billion (based on the official USD rate in Iran), but mostly because of halting oil exports the figure may stand at $77 billion, giving a $40 billion deficit.

The price of a barrel crude oil was considered at $85 in the current year's budget law and it's predicted that Iran would export 2.2mbpd crude oil, but the IEA says Iran's oil export volume decreased by one million barrels. The oil price was averaging about $110 per barrel during current year meaning Iran should have made $88 billion crude oil and about $20 condensate exports in 2012.

Hosseini's statement shows that Iran's oil export volume has dropped even further than the IEA forecast which predicted a 40 per cent drop in Iran's oil export.

According to OPEC's annual report, Iran earned $114.75 billion from petroleum exports in 2011. Iran's solar year starts on Mart 20. With regard to a drop in Iran's petroleum revenues by 50 per cent, the lost value is not just the direct oil export incomes, but impacts on customs revenues.

About 60 per cent of the oil revenue counts as government income, while 23 per cent was allocated to the National Development Fund (NDF), 14.5 per cent to the National Oil Company and about two per cent to undeveloped regions.

The huge drop in Iran's direct oil export revenues also have other indirect consequences, for instance thanking to oil dollars, Iran had 68.32 billion worth of imports in 2011. A major source for customs taxes revenues which are due to decreasing oil dollars, a 50 per cent drop in Iran's national currency during current year and the ration of the USD offering plan and limits to achieve it during last months, it is expected Iran's imports would be cut significantly and then customs tax incomes would be affected.

According to the current yearly budget, taxed income shares seven per cent of Iran's GDP worth $27.7 billion.

The Washington-based Institute for International Finance said last week that Iran's GDP in 2012 is expected to shrink by 3.5 per cent, from 1.2 per cent positive growth in 2011. With regard to the contraction in Iran's economy, direct taxation incomes would decrease as well.

In total, resuming just oil and taxes revenues, Iran is likely to lost above $60 billion during the current year, a figure that meets construction of over 70 nuclear power plants (NPP) such as the 1000-megaw Bushehr NPP as well as the cost of required yearly nuclear fuel supplies for all of them.

Iran has enriched above six tons of low-refined uranium during last eight years that meets just three weeks of a 1000mw NPP.


Dalga Khatinoglu /Trend/