Ex US Ambassador to Soviet Union Jack Matlock: No major changes in South Caucasus, which is unfortunate

On the third anniversary of the last war in South Caucasus many local analysts question whether the stability in the region is strong and if there is any possibility of destabilization?

Of course there is the possibility of further "instability" if the fundamental problems are not solved. I do not consider the current situation stable.

Another question became actual after the Georgian war - should the South Caucasus countries look their stability and protection in NATO? Is there any possibility for them to integrate into it?

NATO is not a solution. It cannot protect countries from themselves, and the fundamental problems in the South Caucasus are internal, even though external forces sometimes meddle. External forces did not create the problem.

When talking about stability in South Caucasus Russia and US come on agenda. Moscow still considers the region under it influence. Do you think US and Russia can anyhow co-operate in that region?

The region will never flourish in opposition to Russia--which, by the way, did not oppose the independence of the three countries in the South Caucasus. The United States would not tolerate hostile countries on its border, and neither will Russia. If the countries of the South Caucasus want an example, they should study the experience of Finland. The Finns, despite the wars of the early 1940s do not go out of the way to irritate Russia, and are left to live in complete independence even though Finland has never been a member of NATO.

What long-term prospects do you see for the frozen conflicts, such as Nagorno-Karabakh, what do you think is the next step in NK?

I am not sufficiently informed about recent developments in Nagorno-Karabakh to make a judgment about its future. But the solution lies in convincing people to draw a line on past disputes and to live in harmony with their neighbors. It is tragic that so many people have been displaced from their normal homes. A political solution will require easing their plight.

More generally, do you see any major changes in the South Caucasus in this year?

I see no major changes as yet. That is unfortunate. All the countries need to concentrate on economic development and reducing corruption rather than settling scores and fighting old battles that damage everyone.


/APA/