Azerbaijan shapes the South Caucasus transit map and cannot be ignored

Why was the railway to Iran built through Armenia in Soviet times, and not Azerbaijan? If we Google it, we get a lot of cheerful explanations, the general meaning of which boils down to the fact that the reason was some economic factors, not political motives and not the preference of one union republic for another. The logic was not national, but, allegedly, administrative and economic. However, there is another way of looking at the issue: the Soviet government did not want to connect Northern and Southern Azerbaijan with communications.

In this approach, the positions of the USSR and Iran have always coincided, and the Iranian side, apparently, continues to adhere to them until now. It is possible that for this reason, every initiative of Baku is met with caution and doubts.

Recently, the Orbeli 2025 Forum on "Building Peace and Multilateral Cooperation" was held in Yerevan. Armenia has recently been making persistent attempts to assume the role of the logistics hub of the region, and is trying very hard to promote its capabilities in this context. However, in most cases, the issues are considered only in theory, since no idea has yet reached practical implementation, with the possible exception of TRIPP (Zangezur Corridor). Although there are signs that this project will be delayed for a long time at the idea stage. The Armenian government is going to start implementing it only after the parliamentary elections, that is, it links the issue with the political situation, which is fundamentally the wrong approach.

The dream of taking a prominent position in regional logistics in Armenia is mainly associated with Iran. And they always did. During the years of Armenian independence, as is well known, repeated attempts were made to build a railway to Iran. The fact is that in Soviet times, a segment of the route went through the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic - through the Azerbaijani Julfa, and with the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict, communications became inaccessible to the Armenian side. For thirty years, the issue of connecting Iran and Armenia by rail has been raised more than once. But this would require laying 300 kilometers of tracks, building 60 tunnels and 64 bridges, spending more than three billion dollars on this. None of the parties was capable of such a scale, and external investors were in no hurry to spend money on a dead-end project.

Now the need for this project has disappeared, because with the end of the conflict, Iran hopes to restore traffic through the NAR. These hopes were clearly expressed during the forum in Yerevan. With the opening of the Julfa crossing, the Iranian side expects to become a link between the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea. Iran hopes that it will be able to regain the role of a link between the West and the East, which it played in previous centuries, but the problem is that this place has already been occupied. While others were weighing, doubting, scrupulously measuring, trying not to lose money, to grasp everything at once and as soon as possible, curtailing the interests of other actors, Azerbaijan was building. Today, he is fully equipped, because all his projects, including those that were predicted to fail, turned out to be strategically important and necessary. Azerbaijan firmly occupies the position of the most stable, secure and politically neutral transit country, and it is unlikely that anyone will be able to change this. And, of course, not everyone likes it.

At the forum in Yerevan, the Iranian speakers presented a map of the region, which for some reason lacked the communication lines already built by Azerbaijan in the liberated territories. Although the realization of Iran's dream of opening a link through Julfa depends precisely on the success of the Zangezur corridor project, the Armenian section of which is called TRIPP. The Iranian and Armenian sides cannot expect Azerbaijan to open traffic through Julfa until this issue is resolved. The Azerbaijani side has not yet received any dividends from its peacefulness. It has already created conditions for the transit of goods to Armenia, and Baku is unlikely to take another altruistic step if its interests remain only on paper.

The absence of Azerbaijani projects on the map did not escape the attention of experts.

"It is not surprising that the Iranian expert expressed interest in the routes Julfa-Nakhchivan-Yerevan-Gyumri-Kars and Julfa-Nakhchivan-Yerevan-Gyumri-Tbilisi-Poti. The changing realities in the region undoubtedly excited everyone. But the fact that the railway lines Barda-Aghdam and Goradiz-Aghband were not indicated on the map presented by him is already a denial of the real facts. Not accepting reality is not politics, it's just self-deception. The maps presented by the Iranian speaker do not show routes that have already been built or are under construction in Azerbaijan. You may not like us, but you can't ignore us," said Rauf Agamirzaev, an expert on transport and logistics.

The Barda-Agdam-Khankendi railway plays the role of the main logistical gateway of Karabakh. This line is of strategic importance in terms of the restoration of cargo and passenger traffic in the region, the integration of new production and trade areas. To exclude this reality from ready-made maps is to turn your analysis into nothing, Agamirzaev believes. The Goradiz-Agband line, as the Azerbaijani part of the Zangezur corridor, forms the main transit artery of the region. According to the expert, any forecast made without taking into account the scale of this project automatically loses its seriousness.

"Trains are already running to Aghdam, a railway has been extended to the border Agband, a bridge has been built across the Araz, and the Iranian side promises to open the automobile segment of the Araz corridor in March next year. The existing infrastructure makes it possible to diversify transit routes in the region, which makes it particularly attractive. The Zangezur corridor, promoted by Azerbaijan, is unique in that it can function as both West-East and North-South.

If we take a closer look at the map, which was demonstrated by Iranian experts at an event in Yerevan, we will see that the infrastructure built by Azerbaijan simply does not exist on it. Only the route from Julfa through Armenia to Georgia and the Georgian ports is indicated. Iran's interest is understandable. It is more interesting for them to reach Turkey and the Black Sea ports through Armenia. That's understandable. But let's take a look at the map that was presented again. This is the map that, apparently, is in their head," the expert said.

Agamirzayev recalled that a few days ago, representatives of diplomatic missions accredited in Azerbaijan were invited to get acquainted with the Goradiz-Agbend railway and the Goradiz-Jabrail-Zangelan-Agbend highway. That is, all parties know how things are at the moment. Therefore, the expert noted, the map presented at the forum in Yerevan raises serious questions. We already have a physical infrastructure, we have a train going to Agdam every Saturday, we have freight transportation in the direction of East Zangezur to Gumlag station. The rail-sleeper grid has already been laid to the village of Agaly, work is actively underway, and next year we will fully complete the project. Is it possible to ignore all this?

According to the expert, there is a route through Julfa not only towards Armenia, but also towards Imishli, and from there to Agjabedi. The Agjabedi-Agdam gap is also planned to be built. The Barda-Agdam to Yevlakh road with access to the Georgian railway and further to the Black Sea ports is already ready. There is also an exit from Julfa to Hajigabul and further along the BTK to the Georgian ports.

If we talk about the automobile route, then, according to our interlocutor, from Julfa you can go towards Akhmedbeyli, and from there along the Jabrayil-Agdam-Yevlakh route with access further to the border with Georgia. The Agbend-Khudaferin-Gubadli-Lachin road and the Lachin-Kalbajar road, passing under the Murovdag ridge, are under construction. The tunnel is scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. The road opens onto the main highway that will connect Azerbaijan with the Black Sea ports.

"By the way, we still have a way out of Astara. Azerbaijan provides many opportunities, which helps to minimize risks. But each cargo carrier, of course, has the right to choose the route itself. Azerbaijan does not impose its roads on anyone. But the absence of projects already implemented in Azerbaijan at the Iranian presentation in Yerevan raises many questions. Why was such a map presented if there is already a physically functioning infrastructure on earth, and it works for the benefit of all? Our projects are aimed both at increasing the transit potential of Azerbaijan and at developing the transport and logistics capabilities of the entire region.

If you look at the general plan of Agdam, you can see the railway exits forming a triangle below. One line goes to Khankendi, the other will connect to Agjabedi in the future. There will be a connection between Aghdam and Aghjabedi. The trains will leave on Yevlakh, and from there proceed to Tbilisi. It is very important. The infrastructure that is being built in Karabakh makes it possible to access different destinations, ports, highways and corridors. Local enterprises will be able to export their products to the Caspian, Black Sea ports, and the Persian Gulf, and through the Zangezur corridor to Iraq and through the Hijaz Road to the Middle East. Through Mersin, there is access to Southern Europe and Northern Africa, and via the Turkish railway network to the European Union.

And yet, our routes run along the plain, while the Armenian ones are complicated by the mountainous terrain. This should also not be forgotten, especially when it comes to the railway. Azerbaijan is the main player in shaping the new transport map of the region. Our projects, unlike those of our neighbors, are not on paper or in dreams, but are being implemented. It's easy to remove lines from the map, but it's impossible to erase roads from reality," said Rauf Agamirzaev.