Azerbaijani political analyst: Armenia's current authorities already understand ties with neighbors are vital

The Armenian armed forces launched military maneuvers in the occupied Azerbaijani territories a few day ago. Earlier, a skirmish, which killed three Azerbaijani soldiers, occurred on the front line. How you bind these events?

This is nothing, but Armenia's attempts to obstruct process of peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. If we trace publications in the Armenian press, we can draw two conclusions:

First, it is now widely believed that Armenia’s foreign policy leads the country to a standstill. Even some of the Armenian ruling elite has already taken steps to change country’s policy towards their Turkic neighbors. There are certain forces in Yerevan which want to take the country out of the vicious circle of Armenian expansion. They already understand futility of their policy and want to make some corrections in the relations with neighbors.

Secondly, corrections in Armenia’s policy to mitigate relations with its Turkic neighbors are extremely disadvantageous for some forces.

Many experts say that Armenia still has forces that are more realistic about the situation in the country and may be more "tractable" in dialogue with Turkic neighbors. Do you think a time will come Armenia will act more sensibly?

Armenia’s foreign policy which has landed the country in an unenviable position, as well as world economic crisis which has hit Armenia very strongly makes one have a different look at the situation. There is  some changes even in Armenia’s politics towards Turkey and Azerbaijan. It is another question whether Armenia will have enough courage to turn these changes to real steps for the complete reformation of relations with its neighbors.

Many opposition members were arrested in anti-government rallies in Yerevan recently. What can happen in Armenia next in connection with the unrest?

Serzh Sargsyan’s party does not want to compromise to Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s party in no case not only because of the fact that the current Armenian President has obligations to his voters, but also with the fact that he has obligations to external forces.

I do not think that periodic demonstrations against the ruling authorities suggest that Ter-Petrossian enjoys broad support in the country. Serzh Sargsyan regime is still ruling in Armenia, and he holds main levers of power. The factor that plays against Levon Ter-Petrosyan is the that during his presidency he was one step away from the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. But, as you know, Levon Ter-Petrosian surrendered to the military junta.

It should be noted any power comes on a wave of nationalist rhetoric in Armenia. But, once on top, it understands that it is impossible to feed the country only by ideology. In order to achieve social prosperity it is vital to establish good relations with neighbors. In my opinion, the current authorities in Yerevan have already understood this objective reality. They will have to make concessions in the Karabakh issue, how hard it may seem.

At the moment Armenia’s parliamentary commission is discussing the Armenian-Turkish protocols. What is your forecast about its future destiny?

I think Armenia will delay ratification of the Zurich protocols and will try, as before, to have any impact on the U.S. Congress in terms of recognition of "Armenian genocide". But Congress is unlikely to recognize the "genocide". Strategic relationship with Ankara are of great interest for Washington. Most likely, President Barack Obama will come up with another term in order to not use the word "genocide". Washington is not interested in adopting this bill, because in this way, it would deprive itself of the lever of pressure on Ankara.

On the other hand, the U.S. is not less than Armenia is interested in opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. Therefore, Armenia’s slow moves to ratify the Zurich protocols may irritate Washington.

Z. Ahmadov