Analysis of the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan

In the current conditions, few doubt that President Ilham Aliyev would win the elections. He has no real opponents not only among the ruling elite, but also among opposition.

Local opposition is weak due to the absence of strong leaders. The existing ones are busy with shifting the blame for everything on others.

Opposition (less that a half of a year is now left to presidential elections) is still split, with low financial opportunities and no significant support of voters.

At the same time the main powers of the opposition have formed two blocs, fighting against each other.

The Azadlyg bloc is an old association of opposition parties, created before the parliamentary elections. Since this time the bloc has undergone a number of changes and currently consists of three parties: Popular Front, Liberal Party and Party of Civil Development. All of them are stable and predictable enough. They are not endangered with split. The first two parties, led by Ali Kerimli and Lala Shovket-Hajiyeva, famous in Azerbaijan, are experienced and have support among voters.

The Azadlyg bloc has not yet decided whether it will take part in the presidential elections. If the government does not make changes in the Electoral Code, the Azadlyg bloc may boycott the elections. Otherwise, it will be represented by a single candidate, either by Ali Kerimli or Lala Shovket.

Other center of opposition powers is the Advisory Center of Opposition. It has not formed as a single bloc, but the powers, substituting it, are impressive. These are such parties as Musavat, National Independence, Democratic Party, Public Forum "For the sake of Azerbaijan" and ATA bloc (it is represented by small opposition parties, which have no real power or influence).

Despite such impressive powers the Center is week, as comprises differing powers and ambitious politicians. The matter is that Musavat has an influential group led by Arif Hajiyev and Rauf Arifoghlu, who prefer to make money by cooperating with authorities.

This group made Isa Gambar take part in parliamentary elections and sit in the parliament. Now, they make Gambar nominate for presidential elections, otherwise threatening to leave Musavat. They have threatened to create their own party-Democrat Moslems.

Therefore, Isa Gambar will take part in presidential elections fearing to loss the party. He will play to Ilham Aliyev, making money, and then resign from the position of a chairman.

It can be said that the opposition will not have a single candidate.

Moreover, the elections may also include a number of secondary opposition politicians, which will not be able to obtain serious results during racing. They will just create a background of a political struggle at the elections and hinder main leaders of the opposition from winning the elections and split weak opposition powers. By doing it, they will improve the financial state.

Possibility of participation of such political migrants from Azerbaijan as Rasul Guliyev and Ayaz Mutalliboc in the elections is low, as they will be inevitably arrested upon the arrival and brought to responsibility. Guliyev's previous attempts to return to Azerbaijan failed. The same will happen this year. The Party of Open Society which he leads has no influence. As for the party led by Mutallibov-Social Democratic Party, it also does not play any significant role in the political life of Azerbaijan.

/Novosti-Azerbaijan/