Armenian market has never been able to do without Azerbaijan

The State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan has published information on export-import operations between our country and Armenia in the first quarter of this year.

According to the ministry, in January-March 2026, goods worth $5,757 million were exported from Azerbaijan to Armenia. This volume amounted to 0.11 percent of the total exports of the republic.

The published figures, although not so significant on the scale of international trade, are very important. These figures mark the beginning of trade relations, which is symbolic in the context of the peace process between the two countries.

It is known what Azerbaijan sells to Armenia. These are gasoline and diesel fuel. Azerbaijani products arrive in the neighboring country at a lower-than-average price. Initially, an attempt was made to boycott gas stations offering Azerbaijani fuel, but today refueling a car with Azerbaijani gasoline has become the norm. The fact that imports from Azerbaijan have helped Armenia diversify the market and eliminate its monopoly is recognized by both the authorities and independent experts of the neighboring country.

Recently, supplies have intensified - since the beginning of April, two trains with diesel fuel have been sent to Armenia.

Speaking in parliament the other day, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated the economic benefits of trade with Azerbaijan for Armenia. According to him, the import of Azerbaijani petroleum products allowed the residents of Armenia to save tens of billions of drams. Possible crises, including the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, would have a stronger impact on the country's economy if it were not for the launch of supplies via the Azerbaijani railway to Armenia, the Armenian Prime Minister said.

At the beginning of the year, the countries exchanged lists of goods they could trade. Economy Minister Papoyan noted that the Azerbaijani side had submitted a rather long list.

And what can Armenia offer? More precisely, what can Azerbaijan potentially buy from its neighbors? The main Armenian exports are precious stones and metals, including gold, silver, and so on. Azerbaijan does not need these purchases. According to Armenian media, Armenia is ready to supply aluminum foil and raw materials for its production, ferromolybdenum, tobacco and textile products, alcoholic beverages, tomatoes, peppers, roses, as well as livestock to Azerbaijan. Earlier it was reported that fresh water supplies from Armenia are also being discussed.

The most likely item, according to experts, is Armenian aluminum foil. These products have been produced in Armenia since Soviet times. During the period of independence, foil remained on the list of major exports, but recently problems have begun to arise with this. So, the American market was closed for Armenian foil - local producers rebelled. Azerbaijan buys foil, and the Azerbaijani market can become a convenient outlet for Armenian manufacturers.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have never traded as independent states. Trade between the Union republics was different, since the Soviet and current market principles of trade are far from the same thing. The parties are not familiar with each other's markets and opportunities. The Armenian market is especially "mysterious". A peculiar situation has been developing in the economy of the neighboring country since the early 90s, and in the last couple of years it has existed almost entirely due to re-exports. Much more is known about Azerbaijan's capabilities. 

No trade agreements can be concluded between Baku and Yerevan yet. This process will begin only after the signing of a peace treaty and the establishment of interstate relations. Currently, trading operations are carried out at the company level, although there is undoubtedly a government policy behind them. In any case, there is a long way to go before we can talk about expanding trade. And not only because of the lack of diplomatic relations, but also because of the lack of logistics opportunities. First of all, there is no direct railway connection between the two countries. As for highways, Armenian roads are not suitable for large-scale international transportation. It is no coincidence that there has been a lot of talk about the Trump TRIPP Route project in Armenia in recent days. Despite the situation in the Middle East and other risks, Yerevan is very determined to build a corridor through Meghri. American officials make the same confident statements.

With the stabilization of the situation in the region, there are hopes that the implementation of the project will start in the near future. Work in this direction was supposed to begin this month, but was postponed due to the war against Iran.

Nevertheless, we can say that the ice has broken. Given the thirty years of conflict, the current pace of economic cooperation can be called encouraging. The fact that just six years after the war that ended thirty years of occupation and hostility, today we are discussing the mutual trade turnover between Armenia and Azerbaijan is also a kind of victory.  

However, even during the conflict years, a small amount of trade was carried out at the level of individuals who purchased products in third countries. Moreover, Armenian entrepreneurs were engaged in this. The Armenian market has never been able to do without Azerbaijan, and the restrictions of the conflict were very painful for the economy of our neighbors.

Interesting statistics were published by the Armenian media in 2017 in connection with a criminal case on the fact of bribing customs officers when importing Azerbaijani apples to Armenia. Due to the appearance of these products on the market in a neighboring country, a lot of noise was raised, even the National Security Service got involved. It turned out that apples are not the only "saboteur" in the Armenian market. According to the National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia, from 1995 to 2016, the volume of trade between the two countries amounted to 68.3 thousand dollars. Moreover, during this entire period, Armenia exported goods worth only $ 300, while the rest is imported from Azerbaijan.

It was not about export-import operations, but about the import of agricultural and other products of Azerbaijani origin to private individuals either by direct agreement or from Georgia. The scandal then acquired such proportions that for a while Armenia stopped importing cucumbers and tomatoes from Georgia so that a "saboteur" would not sneak into the country under the guise of Georgian tomatoes. During the specified period of time, Armenian entrepreneurs imported Azerbaijani products worth 24.6 thousand dollars from third countries. The rest of the volume was purchased in unimaginable ways directly from Azerbaijan itself. The media, citing sellers from Yerevan markets, pointed out that the grenades had been imported from Ganja for many years. Azerbaijani garlic and Azerbaijani chocolate also appeared on the shelves.

According to Armenian experts, in fact, the trade volume was much higher than the officially recognized 68 thousand dollars. Significantly more Azerbaijani products were imported to Armenia, but no one knew about their origin. If the apples that caused the scandals and investigations didn't have the manufacturer's label on them, no one would have known what kind of production they were.

It is not specified what was imported from Armenia to Azerbaijan in 1995-2016. 300 dollars is a small thing, which is probably why no one went into details.

The trade turnover between Armenia and Azerbaijan has never been balanced. Azerbaijan has always supplied more to Armenia than it received from there. In Soviet times, the economic relations of the AzSSR and the ArmSSR were built within the framework of the unified national economic complex of the USSR and were very different from the market ones. But even then, Armenia received much more from Azerbaijan than it supplied itself. Both during the Soviet trade period and during the illegal import of Azerbaijani products to Armenia, Armenian imports were significantly lower. The situation will look the same when official relations are established and trade turnover takes on a serious scale.

Trade with Azerbaijan is extremely important for Armenia. Now Armenian entrepreneurs do not have to dodge in search of ways to import Azerbaijani products. Peace and political dialogue have created opportunities to trade legally and on any available scale. Trade cooperation can serve as a cement for the normalization process. Historically, countries and civilizations have developed along the routes of trade routes. Trade brought mutual interests and made peace much more profitable than war.

At the opening of the XIII Global Baku Forum, President Ilham Aliyev said: "We have achieved peace with Armenia not only on paper, but also on the ground. Peace reigns along our borders, there are no more gunfights, no casualties, no casualties. We have lifted all restrictions on the transportation of goods to Armenia from different destinations. We even started trading with Armenia: the export of oil products that are important to them was started. By doing so, we demonstrate our commitment to peace - not long-term peace, but eternal peace. This is our strategy and our policy, and we are once again demonstrating that Azerbaijan is a peaceful country."