Why Baku–Supsa matters far beyond oil exports [ANALYSIS]

Kazakhstan, one of the largest oil exporters in Central Asia, has long been heavily dependent on existing infrastructure routes connected to Russian territory and ports. However, the changing geopolitical environment following the Russia-Ukraine war has intensified discussions about the diversification of export corridors. In this context, the possible use of the Baku–Supsa pipeline represents part of a larger strategic shift in Eurasian energy connectivity as well as its economic opportunity. Besides, Kazakhstan’s consideration of the Baku–Supsa oil pipeline as a potential export route reflects broader geopolitical and economic changes reshaping Eurasian energy markets.

Kazakh officials have stated that the country is exploring several additional routes for oil exports, including the Baku–Supsa pipeline. At the same time, they clarified that no official proposal has yet been received from Azerbaijan regarding the use of this route. Nevertheless, the very discussion around Baku–Supsa highlights the growing strategic significance of the South Caucasus in global energy logistics.

The Baku–Supsa pipeline occupies an important place in the history of Caspian energy development. The export route, designed to transport oil produced from Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field block, was commissioned in April 1999. Stretching 837 kilometers, including 775 kilometers of newly built pipeline and 55 kilometers of rehabilitated infrastructure, the route connects Azerbaijan with Georgia’s Black Sea coast.

The pipeline has an annual capacity exceeding 7 million tons of oil, or approximately 145,000 barrels per day.

At the time of its launch, Baku–Supsa symbolized the emergence of a new geopolitical order in the Caspian region. It was not merely an economic project but also a strategic attempt to diversify export infrastructure.

For many years, the pipeline played an important role in diversifying export options for Caspian hydrocarbons and reducing dependence on traditional post-Soviet transit systems. However, operations along the route were suspended in the spring of 2022 due to changing regional conditions and logistical challenges linked to geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region.

The agreement reached between Azerbaijan and Georgia in May 2026 to resume operations therefore attracted significant attention among regional energy analysts and international markets.

The Trans-Caspian direction offers several strategic advantages. Oil transported across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan can then be delivered westward through multiple export routes, including Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan and potentially Baku–Supsa. This diversification reduces dependence on any single corridor while increasing flexibility in export operations.

Azerbaijan has gradually transformed itself into a key connector between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe. This strategy is based not only on oil and gas infrastructure but also on broader transport and logistics integration, including the development of the Middle Corridor.

For Azerbaijan, reopening Baku–Supsa offers several advantages. First, it strengthens the country’s role as a transit state connecting Central Asia with Europe. Second, it enhances Azerbaijan’s geopolitical relevance at a time when Europe is actively seeking diversified energy partnerships. Third, it increases flexibility within the regional export system by providing additional routes for Caspian hydrocarbons.

Georgia also stands to benefit substantially. As a transit country located between the Caspian basin and the Black Sea, Georgia’s strategic significance grows whenever regional energy and transport projects expand.

Nevertheless, the renewed discussion surrounding the Baku–Supsa pipeline demonstrates how rapidly Eurasian energy geopolitics is evolving. Pipelines are no longer viewed merely as technical infrastructure. It has become instruments of strategic influence, economic resilience, and geopolitical alignment.