Challenging Kremlin by reckoning on Rome Statute could cost dearly for Pashinyan

By Azernews

Finally, after a long time floundering between Russia and the West, Pashinyan finds a way to say goodbye to Russia once and forever. Taking his chance, in the wake of Putin's sue in the ICC, Armenian PM started to work on ratification of the Statute.

To recall, in 2004, the Constitutional Court took up the case for consideration, and in March 2023, the court found the Rome Statute was in compliance with the newly amended Armenian Constitution. As regards Armenia, it claims that they do ratify the statute because “the risk of new Azerbaijani military aggression against Armenia remains high” and “the Azeri crimes, including war crimes committed in Armenia” being subject to the jurisdiction of the ICC would be a “preventative and restraining measure against Azerbaijan.” However, this is inconvincible for many. They think that Pashinyan intends to get away from Russia.

In a comment to Azernews on the issue, political scientist Dr. Imran Khalid noted that the main reason for a certain change in Armenians' opinion on the ratification of the Rome Statute has more to do with the weakness of Russia after the Ukrainian war. And here Azerbaijan is just an excuse for Armenia in order to avoid Russia's direct attention.

“Actually, no matter what Putin thinks, but in reality, the Ukraine war impacts Russian foreign policy. Particularly, even after the insurgency of Wagner, the war has been converted into a cold conflict and this has actually rendered Putin very weak in the eyes of his friends and allies. So, I think Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is acting extra-precautiously. He understands that the situation is changing and Russia is gradually losing its credibility as a power and a superpower as used to be,” Imran Khalid noted.

He pointed out that the Armenian PM is seeking some friends in the West, particularly in the USA. Since Yerevan strives to divorce Moscow, the world has been witnessing many changes in Armenian foreign policy for the past few years.

“Take the speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's visit to Armenia last September for example. That was the first indication of the shift in the Armenian foreign policy. If one paid attention, Nikol Pashinyan has been trying to stay away from Moscow ever since. Even he has not shown any enthusiasm for the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Furthermore, he canceled one of the joint military exercises with CSTO. In addition, Pashinyan refused to appoint a representative to the position of deputy secretary general of CSTO,” the Political Scientist said.

He emphasized that Pashinyan deliberately did it as a show. Dr. Imran Khalid guesses that he the PM trying to attract his internal cast and voters in the Armenian public with the shift about Russia. Pashinyan and his party think that they can gradually shift the Armenian public opinion about their foreign policy from Russia to the West.

“So, in order to catch their attention he is overtly demonstrating such kind of anti-Russia attitude like the ratification of the Rome Statute. It is a fact that the Rome Statute ratification has just a symbolic value and I do not think that any of the countries will ever dare to arrest Putin. Even if Putin visits any countries that ratified the statute, nobody will arrest him, because it could have drastic consequences. So, it means that Pashinyan intends to draw attention by getting ratified the statute,” the expert concluded.