Expert says war with Iran would be ‘grueling’

Day.Az interviewed political scientist Rasim Agayev.

Discussions over a possible military attack against Iran are still in the world agenda. Do you think this is possible?

Mr. Agayev: Most likely, it will happen. Many in the U.S. policy say that the hour is approaching. However, it is possible that Washington plans to attack Iran, as they say ‘with the hands of Israel’. But, more putative version is that the nuclear facilities will be targeted and the U.S. will try to avoid direct intervention, as it was in the same Iraq.

In any case, the Iranian scenario would be significantly different from the Arabic. The so-called new ‘Iranian front’ can be fatal war. In addition, it is likely that an attack on Iran will be accompanied by serious and palpable discontent of some powers, as well as a wide resentment in the Muslim world. Indeed, although the recent ‘Arab Revolution’ a little bit split the Arab and Muslim world, however, there are several important factors. Thus, a considerable number of people in Egypt and Libya, are dissatisfied with the results of the ‘liberal revolution’. The masses feel cheated. It’s enough to pay attention to the demonstrations in the Egyptian state.

The statements about that today’s Iran - a threat to the region and the international community also acquired quite a frequent character. However, many experts believe the very beginning of military action against Iran will lead to regional and international instability...

Mr. Agayev: First of all, Iran as the ‘world evil’ - is the traditional rhetoric. In fact, all is determined by ‘prism you look through’. For example, the Western media show all the processes in and around the Iranian state as non-substantial, and with the notorious bias. Most of these media outlets do not think about the essence of this ‘Iranian regime’, significance of certain events and political aspirations of certain forces in Iran. Therefore, some countries call the Islamic Republic of Iran as ‘the world's evil’ and meanwhile, other countries welcome the Iranian state as a ‘stronghold of resistance to the Western imperialism’.

It should be noted that this is not always negative and biased stereotypes. Sometimes, these statements reflect the reality. As, the globalist policy is highly controversial and today the discussion about the new arc of instability is much popular.

As for the regional and international destabilization in case of an attack on Iran, it will depend on the tactics and strategies, that is, the methods of warfare. Tehran’s answer is very important here.
 
Does Iran have military, economic and political potential for long-term confrontation with the West?
 
Mr. Agayev: I believe Iran’s capabilities were underestimated. However, if the Iran war drags on, then some states will support Iran in a varying degree, because, as I noted earlier, not all is clear in this area. The continuation of the situation can contribute to that the list of such countries will include China, India, Pakistan and some Arab states. At the same time, Iran also has very considerable resources to maintain a long and exhausting war. Let's not forget about the crisis that has gripped the western world.

What about rhetoric in the Tehran - Ankara relations regarding the Syrian issue? Can it worsen in the short term?

Mr. Agayev:  Competition in the region between Iran and Turkey is a historical fact. Each of these powers has been fighting for leadership, and, of course, the interests encounter in one or another way. However, on the other hand, surely regional hegemony of neither Iran nor Turkey is totally unacceptable for the West and Israel. But, the West understands that the great ‘Middle East pie’ should be divided, and in this respect Turkey has already received its share. Iran’s weakening will also play in a certain sense, in favor of Ankara.

In principle, despite all the contradictions between the Turkish state and the European Union, Turkey is ‘an American locomotive’ in the Middle East. I think the rhetoric about ‘Syrian problem’ will be exacerbated, but the Islamic factor in Turkey and Iran is also significant, despite the Shia and Sunni issue, as well as the notion of ‘moderate’ and ‘radical’ Islam. Many speak about the prospects for rapprochement and solidarity in the Islamic world in modern times
 
How do you think, how much Israel is interested in attacking on Iran, given that the Israeli state is still in problematic Middle East?
 
Mr.Agayev: The geopolitical strategy of the Israeli state has always been aimed at creating tensions in the Middle East region. However, times change, and even its closest allies are signaling to Israel that the constant confrontation is not so desirable also for Israel itself. Israel might be interested in attacking on Iran, but it is not guaranteed from the fact that this war will be very exhausting for Israel also.
 

/Day.Az/