Survey reveals deep youth discontent and political vacuum in Armenia

The American International Republican Institute (IRI) recently released the findings of a new public opinion survey conducted in Armenia. Held between June 16 and 25, the phone-based survey reached 1,505 adult citizens across the country.

Unsurprisingly, the results sparked significant interest within the expert community. Among those who weighed in was Farhad Mammadov, head of the South Caucasus Research Center, whose analysis offers valuable insight into the broader political and societal implications.

According to his post shared on social media, one of the central questions posed was whether Armenia is heading in the right direction. Only 36% of respondents believed the country was on the right path, while 49% disagreed. As Mammadov highlights, dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced among young people aged 18 to 35—the very demographic Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan often seeks to appeal to. Nearly half of this group (49%) expressed the view that Armenia is moving in the wrong direction.

Political preferences revealed a fragmented and distrustful electorate. Pashinyan remains the most recognized figure but secured support from only 13% of respondents. Other prominent politicians such as Ararat Mirzoyan (5%), Robert Kocharyan (4%), Aram Sargsyan (2%), and Alen Simonyan (2%) all polled in the single digits, while the majority—61%—declared they do not trust any political leader.

This striking figure, as Mammadov notes, points to a widespread loss of faith in both the current leadership and the traditional opposition. Cross-referencing another survey question—“Which party would you vote for?”—reveals that around 60% of respondents either have no answer or do not intend to vote at all. Most significantly, 63% of this disengaged group are young people.

From this, Mammadov draws a clear conclusion: Armenia’s youth form the most dissatisfied and politically alienated segment of society. They are disenchanted with the government, unconvinced by the opposition, and undecided about participating in elections. In his words, “This leads to the conclusion that young people are dissatisfied with the current situation, meaning they form the protest segment of the electorate.”

He adds, “Political organisations have work to do—and, more precisely, someone to work with. There is also potential for a third force, which must not be associated either with the current authorities or with the 'former' ones.” This idea echoes the key takeaway of the overall commentary: that a political vacuum is forming, and a new force may emerge to fill it.

Further data from the survey strengthens this interpretation. For instance, while 58% of older respondents support peace with Azerbaijan, only 38% of young people share this view. In fact, 48% of youth respondents oppose a peace agreement outright. This generational divide suggests that future opposition to Pashinyan is less likely to come from pro-Russian elements and more likely from a new pro-Western yet nationalist political force.

Such a scenario would be especially dangerous for the current leadership if a charismatic figure emerges—someone who blends Western-leaning values with revanchist rhetoric. In that case, Pashinyan could face formidable opposition not from the past, but from a future generation he has thus far failed to win over.

There is, however, a curious silver lining. According to the survey, youth trust in the Church is significantly lower than among middle-aged and older citizens. Paradoxically, this means the Church—the institution with the highest level of support among peace-inclined older Armenians—might exert influence over the segment most open to reconciliation with Azerbaijan.

This finding is not without geopolitical weight. As Farhad Mammadov concludes, “For Azerbaijan, this is valuable data supporting its position on the need for a referendum to amend Armenia’s Constitution—so that, as President Ilham Aliyev has noted, Armenia will make no claims in the future. After all, it is today’s youth who will shape that future!”

If we consider that Russia's recent reinforcement of its military base in Gyumri, the signing of a peace treaty is surely on unstable ground. Given that Armenian society mainly supports Russia, the situation could shift at any moment.

And while the outlook may seem troubling, there is a strategic value in preparing for the worst. After all, only by anticipating the challenges ahead can the conditions be created in which the best outcomes might yet be achieved.