Are Armenians now in favor of peace with Azerbaijan? It's time for Pashinyan to act

The results of an opinion poll conducted by the Research Center of the International Republican Institute (IRI) in Armenia in June this year have been published. 1,505 citizens of different ages were interviewed by phone, selected by age, gender and place of residence.

Opinion polls, as a rule, give very approximate results, because no matter how you select, a couple of thousand people cannot express the moods and aspirations of millions. Of course, it is impossible to draw conclusions about the preferences of the population as a whole based on opinion polls. Nevertheless, some kind of picture is still emerging. And based on the results of the June poll, we can say that Nikol Pashinyan has something to think about.

Only 35 percent of Armenian citizens believe that the country is moving in the right direction. Moreover, young people were especially distrustful of the government's course - 49 percent. 61 percent of respondents do not believe any politician, while only 13 percent believe Pashinyan. However, the opposition represented by Robert Kocharyan is hopelessly behind the prime minister, gaining only 4 percent of the vote. The opposition also has no chance of winning the elections. However, Kocharyan's bloc managed to win this year (compared to last year's poll) 2 percent, but Pashinyan's party lost 3 percent of the vote, gaining only 17 percent.

Armenians who do not fully trust any politician have no choice but to seek support on other platforms. The army and the church won the ranking of the best activities. Strangely enough, 72 percent of Armenians are fully or partially satisfied with the activities of the army. These are probably the Armenians who don't read the news or watch TV. The Church comes in second place with a 59 percent level of full or partial trust. Moreover, the number of AAC trustees has increased by as much as 10 percent compared to last year. And what is especially noteworthy is that 70 percent of the young people surveyed trust her.

The respondents could not clearly answer the question about the biggest achievement of the Armenian government over the past six months. Ensuring peace was considered an achievement by only 7 percent of the respondents, while economic growth was noticed by only 2 percent of the survey participants.  The same situation applies to determining the biggest mistake of the authorities. Most of them answered indistinctly. It is noteworthy that hitting the AAC was considered a mistake by only 6 percent of respondents. The wrong foreign policy worries Armenians much more - 14 percent.

But these are all small things compared to the main issue, on the solution of which the destruction of all other problems depends. According to the survey results, 47 percent of Armenian citizens fully or partially support the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, while 40 percent oppose it. The level of "pros" and "cons" varies depending on the age groups. Among the youth, 38 percent of the respondents supported the peace treaty, while 48 percent opposed it.  Among citizens over the age of 56, 58 percent of respondents supported signing peace with Azerbaijan.

The survey showed a high level of nihilism among young people. More than half of the young citizens surveyed do not trust the government, more than 60 percent do not intend to participate in the elections or do not know who to vote for.

Among the things that Nikol Pashinyan should do in the next six months, respondents named establishing peace (22 percent), ensuring border security (17 percent), and developing the army (14 percent) in the top three. They are followed by a change in foreign policy (12 percent). Etc. What does this mean? That despite all the negative trends, the Armenian society still understands that without establishing peace, no other steps will yield results.

And now it's time to draw conclusions.

So, the overall picture is not particularly inspiring, but it still contains hope for change. After all, there were times when the results of such surveys did not contain doubts and vacillations. For the Armenian society, everything was divided into black and white. The fact that only 8 percent of respondents are talking about the resignation of the prime minister gives Nikol Pashinyan a head start in order to get away from his opponents a few more steps ahead. The government's rating is low, but the opposition has no chance at all. It is clear that the people have crossed out the "former" and windbags from their plans for the future. This creates much more opportunities to change the situation, and Pashinyan needs to focus not on those who are against, but on those who doubt or are disappointed. And he should hurry up. Time is running out. If a little less voted for the peace treaty this year, it means that there is a trend, and so far about half of the citizens (at least according to the survey results) are in favor of signing the peace, we must hurry. And special attention should be focused on young people.

Youth is the driving force of any society. The Armenian youth, who have the right to vote, is a very important part of the electorate. She is disappointed and confused. Today's youth were born in the country of the "winners", but entered adulthood in a completely different environment. Society is in a depression, there are no prospects ahead, myths are bursting like soap bubbles one after another. Pashinyan should not waste his energy on words and quarrels with the opposition - it is not his rival, but work with young people.

There is a referendum on the Constitution ahead. Pashinyan probably already understands that Armenia cannot avoid him. He also understands that Azerbaijan does not intend to back down from its demands, which means that the results of the referendum must be positive. It is the government's task to provide them (in a good way). And the opinion poll shows that a certain part of the electorate is already ready to vote for the changes. Those who are against peace cannot be persuaded, but doubters can be won over to their side. There is no need to escalate the internal political situation now, as this may hinder the solution of Armenia's main problem.

By the way, earlier it was reported that Nikol Pashinyan plans to hold a rally in Etchmiadzin with his participation and almost storm the residence of the Governor. However, Justice Minister Srbuhi Galyan denied rumors about Ktrich Nersisyan's removal by force, saying that "he will decide to leave voluntarily."

The situation in Armenia is generally calming down, and rightly so. There is no time for revolutions and no time for personal grudges. The main task of the Pashinyan government is to quickly fulfill Baku's conditions and sign peace, after which the situation in the country will begin to change on its own.

As we have already noted, opinion polls do not provide objective, comprehensive results that allow us to speak with absolute certainty about the mood in society. Nevertheless, the demand for changes in Armenian society seems to have already been identified.