Armenian intelligence sees low risk of large-scale conflict with Azerbaijan in 2025

Armenian intelligence has assessed the probability of large-scale military action by Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2025 as low, according to a recent report by Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service.

The report, which examines key risks and threats for the year, underscores that while a full-scale war is deemed unlikely, localized skirmishes and escalations remain plausible. According to Armenian media, the analysis highlights that ongoing border delimitation and demarcation processes could play a role in reducing the likelihood of broader confrontations.

However, the report also warns that the absence of a concrete peace treaty increases the risk of sporadic clashes. Bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are noted as the most viable avenue for reducing tensions, but delays in normalizing relations or signing peace agreements may lead to prolonged uncertainty and heightened risks.

The report further emphasizes Azerbaijan’s continued focus on bolstering its military capabilities in 2025. This includes advancements in mobile units, reserve training, and the acquisition of new weapons and military equipment, signalling its ongoing commitment to maintaining a robust defence posture.

The findings suggest that while the potential for a large-scale conflict remains minimal, the region’s stability depends heavily on diplomatic efforts and mutual commitments to de-escalation.