Caspian Sea island could become peninsula as water levels continue to decline

Ulviyya Poladova

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Nordovy Island in the Caspian Sea could eventually become connected to the mainland due to the continued decline in the sea’s water level.

According to RBC, citing Russian scientists, the Caspian Sea’s water level has fallen by an average of 23 centimetres per year over the past five years.

The decline is particularly noticeable in the shallow northern part of the Caspian Sea. In 2025, the sea level dropped by a record 29.4 centimetres.

Scientists believe that if the current rate of decline continues, the Caspian Sea’s water level could fall by a further 4.5 metres over the next 20 years. In that scenario, Nordovy Island would become connected to the mainland, turning into a peninsula.

Experts identify the main causes of the decline as a reduction in the volume of water flowing into the Caspian Sea from the Volga River and increased evaporation.

The falling water level is already having a negative impact on the Caspian Sea’s ecosystem, shrinking fish spawning grounds and creating risks for shipping and port operations.

Nordovy is an uninhabited island that serves as a habitat for seabirds. It is located in Kizlyar Bay, in the western part of the Caspian Sea, and administratively belongs to Russia’s Republic of Dagestan. The island is 0.4 kilometres wide and 2.2 kilometres long.