Eurasian Strategy Project director: Armenian government is taking a political risk

Eurasian Strategy Project and Georgetown University professor Cory Welt spoke to Day.Az about the upcoming meeting of U.S. President Barak Obama and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan will have a number of pressing issues to discuss next month. Insofar as the Turkey-Armenia normalization process is one of these issues, we can expect that their conversation will also touch upon the Karabakh conflict resolution process. For now, the Turkish parliament seems to be holding out on ratification with the aim of encouraging at least a minor breakthrough on Karabakh," - Welt said.

"If this attitude persists through the December visit, then the two leaders will undoubtedly discuss ways to encourage such a breakthrough. The contours of this breakthrough should be familiar by now: some kind of agreement that points the way to the withdrawal of Armenian forces from most of the occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the formulation of a neutral “interim” status for Nagorno-Karabakh that points neither to secession nor re-integration into Azerbaijan," - Welt added. 

"There are at least two immediate obstacles to achieving such a breakthrough, however, or in relying on the United States to persuade Armenia to move forward on such a deal. First, the Armenian government is already taking a political risk on normalization with Turkey; even if President Sargsyan was prepared to move forward on Karabagh (which is by no means certain), he would undoubtedly prefer to take one risky move at a time."

"Second, the Azerbaijani government is not making it as easy for the United States to support its position as it could. While President Aliyev’s public support for a “status neutral” solution to the Karabagh conflict is highly welcome, official rhetoric regarding Azerbaijan’s willingness to use force as a last resort is negatively received in the U.S. – all the moreso after we witnessed the recent bloodshed in the South Caucasus. At the same time, Azerbaijani internal developments, for better or for worse, inescapably influence American views toward Azerbaijan and its state interests" - the expert noted.

T. Teymur
Day.Az