U.S. expert : I'm not sure if Armenian-Turkish border will open soon

May a possible improvement in the U.S.-Russian relations have an impact on the policies of these two countries in the Caucasus, specifically, resolution of conflicts in the region?
Improved U.S.-Russian relations are likely to have an impact on their ability to achieve progress in resolving conflicts in the Caucasus. The U.S. and Russia diplomats played an important role in signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. The main factor in this agreement is Turkish interests in solving regional disputes in order to promote Turkey’s role as a regional political "broker". However, the signing of the “deal" would not have been possible without the U.S.-Russia cooperation, which in turn, appeared only in the past year or without Moscow's and Washington's attempts to improve the overall climate of bilateral relations.

Do you expect speedy progress in resolving ethnic conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh?

Not really. The only way Turkey and Armenia could achieve even a limited deal is to put aside the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. Given the pressure on the Armenian government, Armenia will unlikely be able to make any concessions on Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey also needs to retain some leverage with Azerbaijan which was very upset by agreement between Turkey and Armenia. It will take time to analyze these protocols and consider them in the Turkish and Armenian parliaments. Moving forward in a more complex Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may take more time.

Armenia is the only one of three South Caucasian states where there is a strong Russian influence. Do you think the United States is studying opportunities to strengthen its influence there in order to weaken Russia's influence?

I think that the U.S. is trying to avoid considering its relations with the Caucasus countries as an alternative to Russia's influence. In fact, the U.S. wants Armenia to agree to take part in the pipeline project from the Caspian Sea to Europe which Russia opposes.

Azerbaijan has signed a deal with Russia to supply gas to this country starting from 2010. It is argued that Baku made this move being disappointed at the slow of implementation of projects such as Nabucco which is aimed at ensuring European energy security. What are your views?

I think that there are several factors in Azerbaijan’s decision. First, following the August events in Georgia, it seemed that the regional balance in the Caucasus has changed. Secondly, there are difficulties by Turkmenistan in the Nabucco issue and the lack of funding.

Do you expect the Armenian-Turkish border to open soon, or at least, before there is progress in the Karabakh settlement?

I'm not sure about the "soon", but the border is likely to open before the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia has a financial interest in opening of the border. For the Armenian diaspora, which has not directly confronted the consequences of political and economic isolation of Armenia, it is easy to criticize this arrangement, which does not address the issue of Karabakh. Armenian citizens will certainly benefit from it. In turn, opening of the border would increase the regional weight of Ankara including in its negotiations with the European Union.


/Day.Az/