Sergey Markedonov: "It can not be said that the relations of Moscow and Baku have worsened radically..."

- What can you say about the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia in the passing year of 2008. Which were the pluses and minuses?

- Speaking about the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, we can not forget the events of the five day war, which certainly raised the importance of the South Caucasus region. If earlier the region was considered as the Caspian-Black Sea basin, now the region has grown to the global scale. The borders, which established in the Soviet period, changed. All these factors influence both the Russian-Azerbaijan and Russian-Armenian relations.

At the same time, it can not be said that relations between Moscow and Baku worsened radically. The deterioration of the Russian-Georgian relations did not cause any worsening in the Russian-Azerbaijani relat6ions. On the contrary, I would like to note the existing positive dynamics in the development of relations both before the five day war and after it. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev visited Baku in the framework of his Transcaspian tour before the August events. During the visit the sides signed important agreements. The Russian President stressed the strategic partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan. The next important moment became Ilham Aliyev's visit to Moscow after the five day war.

Then, the signing of the Moscow declaration took place. This event should not be overestimated and considered an absolute breakthrough in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Nevertheless, it can be considered an important event. The two presidents for the first time undersigned this document and this occurred under Moscow's support.

Yes, Baku had some unpleasant feelings after Moscow recognized independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia though Russia says that this event can not be applied to Nagorno Karabakh. Moscow is more cautious in this issue.   

- Do you think the discussion and settlement of any issues will become the main goal of the interstate dialogue of the two countries in 2009? Which vector of internal political contacts will be paid a greater attention?

- Naturally, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement will be the main goal of the external political contacts of Russia and Azerbaijan. Issues of energy cooperation will become extremely urgent. These two issues will be important for the two states.

- Is the situation on Armenia's isolation after the August events in Georgia favorable for Baku?

- I would not speak of the complete isolation of Armenia. Yerevan has normal contacts with Tbilisi, which is proven by Sargsyan's visit to Georgia. West has also good relations with Armenia. The Iranian direction of the Armenian external policy is also effective.

I would not dramatize the situation. There is an opportunity to hold talks with Turkey, which is, by the way, one of the achievements of the passing year.

- Whom do you think will Russia prefer in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict - Azerbaijan or Armenia? How do you treat the statements of international specialists that success can be attained in the resolution process in 2009? Which will be the accent in the mediation efforts of Russia in the resolution of the Karabakh considering that Moscow will not want to lose its strategic ally - Armenia?

- Considering the said facts I do not think there will be any football match and Russia will have to stake either on Azerbaiajn or Armenia. The attempts to search a compromised solution to the Karabakh conflict will continue. The search of a compromise is a routine work.

Frankly speaking, I am not too optimistic in this sense and I do consider that there will be any breakthrough in the Karabakh issue in 2009. Perhaps, there will be a new document in the development of the Moscow declaration, which will not be legally binding.

- At the informal summit of CIS in Karabakh, which started its work, the staff of the participants turned out to be incomplete. Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova, that is the whole GUAM staff was either not invited or rejected to participate. What is the reason?

- It is clear why Georgia did not take part in the summit. It rejected participation in this organization. As for Azerbaijan and Moldova, it is unclear why these countries did not attend the summit. I do not think that the matter is the solidarity of the GUAM states in this case,

- As is known, before the presidential elections in Russia the issue of reelection of one and the same person for the third term of presidency was considered. Yet this initiative was not adopted. Meanwhile, these days the Azerbaijani parliament is taking a decision to submit for consideration in the Constitutional Court of Azerbaijan the decision about holding a referendum on introduction of amendments to the Constitution of the country about lifting restrictions on election of one and the same person as a president for more than twice. Do you think this initiative will be adopted in our country? Which can be the pluses and minuses of the constant reelection of one and the same person as a president?

- Yes, the Azerbaijani parliament decided to submit a resolution to hold a referendum on lifting restrictions on election of one and the same person as a president for more than twice to the Constitutional Court. The ruling party has a majority in the parliament and the document was successfully passed in Milli Medjlis. There are definite pluses in changes in the main document, considering the bitter experience of Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, when people from streets came to power, These people used nationalism and populism as their main weapon. It all affected Azerbaijan negatively.

But there are also minuses. Azerbaijan is an Islamic state. You do not have opposition but there is a resentment and it can transform into Islamic radicalism. The more the powers concentrate around one man, the faster the complex of a ruler is forming. This hampers the greater operative reaction to the political, economic and social challenges in the country. We have just sustained the Soviet times.  

- How do you think will Moscow and West react on changes in the Constitution of Azerbaijan?

- Moscow will support the initiative of the Azerbaijani powers to change the constitution. On the whole West may also support the powers. They will just criticize you for some time and then calm down.

Azerbaijani oil causes a great interest of Englishmen and Americans. The oil interest of the West will outbalance any concepts about democracy in Azerbaijan.

By the way, the Eastern partnership project envisions democratization of Belarus, as one of the main provisions. But at the same time nothing was mentioned about democratization of Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately, oil for Azerbaijan plays not only positive but also negative role in the sense that it neutralizes any issues connected forces will be disappointed in it, which will in turn strengthen people's support for Islamic radicalism.

/Day.Az/