Zurab Todua: "Nagorno Karabakh is too expensive for Armenia"

- How would you comment on the fact of confidential talks between the Armenian and Turkish diplomats?

- I do not see a sensation in the news about the talks between representatives of Turkey and Armenia. Such talks have been held at times almost since the first day of existence of independent Armenia. As is known, former president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan directly set the task to his subordinates to search opportunities and ways of settling the problems in the Armenian-Turkish relations, including the opening of borders, restoration of transportation communication and problem of "genocide" in the mid 1990s. At that time, he failed to do it.

Yet the frozen relations between the two states can not be eternal. Nagorno Karabakh is too expensive for Armenia. The currently extremely low living conditions in Armenia, economic problems, striving of Armenian and Nagorno Karabakh residents to leave the country is a direct result of the blackade and the abnormal life, it led to.

Moreover, Armenia is isolated from all regional economic projects. The people can bear miseries in the state of patriotic spirit and readiness only for a short historical period.

People want to study, work, establish business, create families, bring up children and on the whole, use all opportunities, offered by the life, especially, when they see the intensive development of some other countries of the former USSR.

Thus, I think most Armenian residents will treat the fact of talks, at least, with understanding, though, there will also be exceptions. There will be such people, who will call it a "betrayal of national interests" and "surrending positions", and "accommodation".

- How will Russia, which considers Armenia to be "Russia's outpost in the Caucasus", according to speaker of Russian State Duma Boris Gryzlov, react on improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations?

- I am sure that Russia will not make a tragedy of it. Everyone is aware that the attempt to normalize contacts between the two states is made in pragmatic sense.

Armenia will not stop being the strategic and military and political ally of Russia after it reconciles with Turkey. On the contrary, Russia, which maintains close trade and economic relations with Turkey, will have more opportunities for new perspective and large scale projects, which Armenia can join, though theoretically.

At the same time, there are definite politicians in Armenia, who consider it necessary to distance from Russia and become close to the West for the country's favor. They are not influential so far. But the most important is that they do not take into account most circumstances which do not allow to speak seriously about future of Armenia, as well as many other USSR states, if not all of them, without close and normal relations of Russia, for Russia is a part of the so-called BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which outstrip all other countries of the world for their development level. Today, the rates and scales of Russia's development in all spheres and fields of economy, technique and science are astonishing. By economists' estimates, in 10-15 years the group will take a leading place in the position. It is absurd to speak today of cutting relations with Russia.

- Do you mean, you do not believe in possible separation of Armenia from Russia by choosing the western orientation in its further external policy?

- Like in other regions of the world, to separate from a big neighbor, means to doom oneself to miseries and hardships, isolate people from various opportunities. It is only possible for political reasons (as in case of Cuba, Taiwan and so on), but it will always be artificial. Thus, for example, Baltic states have long tried to make everything possible to limit relations with Russia, trying to hurt it. They have been restricting the rights of Russians, residing there. Last year Estonia passed a decision on the transfer of the Bronze soldier.

In the end, Russia got sick and tired of it. It ceased oil transit via the ports of Estonia and Latvia (65,000,000 tons of oil per year), rejected the services of the oil refinery in Majekae (Lithuania). Now, oil will be transported via the city-port, which is under construction 40 kilometers away from the border with Estonia. The gas transit will be conducted by the North European gas pipeline by the floor of the Finnish gulf.

The irreparable losses of the budgets of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia makes from $1.5 to 2 bln per year for each of these states. Now terminals in Latvia and Estonia are idle, the oil refinery in Majekae is just a peace of corroding iron. But Baltic states create fantastic and unreal plans of their use, though they are not interesting for anyone, except for themselves. Who will dare to state that this was the result of the wise policy of Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn?

For which strategic purposes and tasks does Armenia need to follow the West and separate from Russia? This question has no logical answer. It means that such talks are unfounded.

- Is Armenia ready to cease the activity, aimed at recognition of the "genocide of Armenians" and return of Azerbaijani occupied lands in exchange to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border?

- No, it is not ready to it and, moreover, I think this issue will remain extremely painful for Armenia and Armenians for long. This problem occupied an important place in the system of political views of the Armenian society. It is impossible to change it in a short period of time. Only within a long period of time this problem may become secondary and a part of the history in the perspective. It may occur in the case of the start of the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

As for Nagorno Karabakh, it is quite obvious that opening of borders and return of territories are not the same things. It is odd, that such formulation of a question occurs. Does someone in Azerbaijan really thinks that in exchange for opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, Armenia will agree to return Nagorno Karabakh? I suppose, only softening of Yerevan's positions at the talks is implied.

- In this case, do you think Turkey may give up Nagorno Karabakh for its interests?

- The problem of Nagorno Karabakh concerns primarily the Azerbaijani government and society. It would be strange if Ankara was concerned with it even more than Baku. We should realize that Nagorno Karabakh problem does not occupy either the first or the second and even the third places in the external policy of Turkey. Turkey's main problem is CE accession. It is necessary for the economic development of the country. EU's provision are stiff. It demands changes in the Turkey's policy towards the Turkish Republic of Northern Cypris, normalization of relations with Armenia and initiation of a dialogue with kurds. Turkey is in a very complicated state. It supports separatists of Northern Cyprus and at the same time fights Kurdish separatism. It is a hard business. Only rich and strong countries can conduct a policy, based on mutually exclusive principles. Turkey is not rich or strong and it is impossible to demand from Turkey what is above its abilities.

At the same time, Azerbaijan does not seem too wilful to return its territories. Let's imagine the following situation: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev declares that patience of the Azerbaijani people has been exhausted and it will settle the Karabakh problem independently. Then Azerbaijan will start hostilities. How many volunteers will go to the front to return the lost lands? How much money will your officials spend for army needs? How many of them will reject their villas, yatchs and limos and other luxurous things to bear wartime hardships and miseries alongside with ordinary citizens? How many victims is the Azerbaibaijani society ready to give for the sake of the return of the occupied lands? If you give an honest answer to this question, you will admit that Turkey has a right to take care of its national interests, which also envision normalization of relations with Armenia.

- And the last question. Do you think Armenian-Azerbaijani relations may improve after the thaw in Armenian-Turkish relations?

- What do you imply under "improvement" of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations? If you mean prospect of "return" of Nagorno Karabakh, then it is unreal. On the whole, Armenian-Turkish dialogue will not have a serious influence on the Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, I think. There is no place of naivety in the politics and Turkey and Armenia primarily settle their own tasks at the negotiation table.

/Day.Az/