TODAY.AZ / Politics

Arif Yunusov: "Hope for Russian pressure on Armenia for Karabakh return - illusion"

04 December 2006 [17:43] - TODAY.AZ
The Russian leadership understands that not only the future of the whole region but also the future role and place of Russia in the region is being determined now, said Arif Yunusov, the Director of the Department of Conflictology at the Institute of Peace and Democracy.

In his words, Russia realizes Azerbaijan's role in the Georgian-Russian collision. Russia pursues the policy of the stick and the carrot with Azerbaijan. Now it offers the carrot but at the same time hints at possible appliance of the stick. "In other words, on one hand Russia pursues a selective policy with Azerbaijan. Actively playing a separatist card as regard Georgia and Moldova, Moscow tries not to irritate Azerbaijan. On the other hand Moscow understands that Azerbaijan is neither Georgia nor Armenia. Russia has lost influence on Baku's policy since the Yeltsin times. There are no Russian troops in Azerbaijan, which possesses enough energy resources kept under control of the Azeri authorities," the expert said.

At that he remarked that Russia still has some trumps, first of all the Karabakh issue and the condition of Azeri migrants in Russia. The recent measures of the Russian authorities as regards the Azeri migrants are the stick while the promise of support in the Karabakh issue is the carrot. As a matter of fact Russia can influence on the negotiation process however the hope that Russia will press on Armenia and help Azerbaijan to take Karabakh back is a mere illusion. The settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict will strengthen the U.S. positions and will push Russia out of the region.

The meeting of Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev scheduled for early December in Moscow is likely to yield no result, he said when commenting on the expectations from the forthcoming presidential meeting. "Formally, proceeding from the information on the latest meeting of the FMs in Minsk the Presidents are expected to sign a framework agreement. However I do not believe in it. I suppose the meeting will prove fruitless," he said. At that the Azeri expert remarked that 'there is a breakthrough' in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement.

"The American plan frequently called the Prague Process is coming to its logical end. But it will share the fate of the former plans on the conflict settlement (common state, stepwise plan or package plan) and will simply become a part of history," he said, reports Day.Az.



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