Armenian Gold Bubble: The Anatomy of 10 billion Dollar Scheme

From 2021 to 2024, Armenia's exports increased 4.4 times, from $3 billion to a record $13.1 billion. Official Yerevan spoke of an "economic miracle." In fact, almost all of the increase was provided by one scheme: the re-export of Russian gold.

After the 2022 sanctions, Moscow lost access to refinancing in London and Switzerland. There was a price gap: Russian gold was sold at a discount.

Armenian intermediaries bought it, processed it and resold it to the UAE and Hong Kong at the market price. At its peak, in early 2024, over $1.3 billion of precious metals per month passed through Armenia - almost a quarter of the country's exports.

In April 2024, the Russian Federation abolished the export duty on gold - the scheme was reset in months. The result of 2025: minus 36% of peak exports.

A little later, when objective and final data for the first half of 2026 become available, the scale of the bubble will become even more obvious.