South Caucasus: yesterday, today, tomorrow

The parliamentary elections in Armenia have finally taken place. The intrigue that the opponents of the ruling party tried to introduce into the election process, as expected, turned out to be an empty phrase. Armenian voters did not allow themselves to be dragged into another bloody adventure. The choice lies with the peace agenda and the development of the region.

The Central Election Commission of Armenia has summed up the final results of voting in the parliamentary elections. According to calculations, the Civil Contract Party won 49.81% of the vote. The victory of Nikol Pashinyan's party indicates that the positive processes in our region will continue: the parties will continue to move towards each other, the process of border delimitation and unblocking communications will be activated again, and so on. But here it is appropriate to recall - and what preceded all this?

Even before the elections, Azerbaijan opened roads for Armenia, lifted the ban on transit and made it feel how important it is to be on good terms with those who are nearby. The image of the enemy gradually began to lose its former frightening shades, and the Armenians felt how right the President of Azerbaijan was when he said that living in peace is a special feeling.

At the ceremony of awarding the Zaid Prize for Human Brotherhood in Abu Dhabi in February, President Ilham Aliyev said that our countries had been at war for thirty years, and now we have been living in peace for months. "We are learning to live in peace. I can say that this is a special feeling," the head of state added.

Today, the opposition accuses Baku of supporting Pashinyan. If we consider the support of the Armenian society to be Pashinyan's support, then we will not argue. The Azerbaijani leader's decision to unblock cargo transit for Armenia was not aimed at political support for the current government of a neighboring country. These steps by Baku have become an important component of the peace process initiated by President Ilham Aliyev. And a practical expression of the good intentions of the Azerbaijani side. It may seem strange to have good intentions towards a neighbor who has brought you so much grief and loss. But Baku's policy in this sense is truly unique. Those who admire the well-thought-out steps of the Azerbaijani President are not exaggerating at all. Thanks to the peace agenda he initiated, the "weather" in the region began to change. By all rights, Azerbaijan could have punished its treacherous neighbor, and anyone else in its place would probably have done just that. In Armenia, it was expected that Azerbaijan would tighten the "noose", strengthen the isolation in which it kept it during the conflict years. Baku has never hidden that it has closed all opportunities for the occupier and left development behind. He could continue this policy now, especially since, having moved to the rank of a medium-strength country, he received much more opportunities for this.

But the President of Azerbaijan reasoned otherwise. The aggressor has been punished enough on the battlefield, and now it's time for a new regional policy.

The story of the special envoy of the President of the United States, Steve Witkoff, has spread around the world about one notable moment that took place in the conversation between Donald Trump and Ilham Aliyev at a meeting in Washington on August 8, 2025. Trump asked why Azerbaijan stopped and did not move on, having a strong army and victory. According to Witkoff, the Azerbaijani President responded to this: "I wanted to return what was taken from us. I don't need any more."

It was the answer of a wise politician who knows how to see much further than others. It was also a signal to Armenia that Azerbaijan has no plans for revenge. He has achieved his goals, and now he will work to consolidate what he has achieved.  The path of development that President Ilham Aliyev has chosen for the region is even more difficult than a military victory. Turning yesterday's enemy into a partner is more difficult than hoisting your flag over an enemy fortress. And such a victory is safer and more durable, because it allows you to change something in the minds of those who anathematized you yesterday. It is impossible to build a stable region if there is an enemy on the other side of the borders. Even if it is reliably isolated, weak and limited in capabilities. Such a foundation is unreliable. Sooner or later, there will be an external force that wants to undermine it, as it was done in the late 80s.  And the region will be thrown into the fire again.

To prevent this from happening, the President of Azerbaijan extended the hand of peace to the enemy. As the leader of the victorious country, as the Supreme Commander of the Victorious Army.

Foreign experts do not hide the fact that Baku's actions have put their forecasts to shame. No one expected Baku to offer Yerevan peace instead of trying to crush Armenia in international institutions, completely cut off its oxygen supply and fence it off with barbed wire.

The Armenian side also did not immediately decide to believe in the reality of what was happening. When Azerbaijani gasoline went to Armenia, some were confused, others panicked. However, the queues at gas stations for inexpensive Azerbaijani fuel began to grow. The revanchist tantrums had the opposite effect. The opposition propaganda did not work on the issue of the delivery of Russian and Kazakh grain through Azerbaijan. They tried to convince the Armenian society that eating bread made from wheat brought through the territory of the "age-old enemy" is a betrayal. Truly, the fantasy of the Armenian revanchists is boundless.

Speaking at the opening of the XIII Global Baku Forum, President Ilham Aliyev stressed that "for the first time in its independent history, Armenia can become a transit country." According to him, after the establishment of peace with Armenia, "we are closely working on the expansion of the Middle Corridor, which also passes through the territory of Armenia." And he added: "Peace with Armenia exists not only on paper, we already feel peace on the ground."

Parliamentary elections are a sovereign right and an internal matter of every State. But the future fate of the region depended on the results of the elections in Armenia, so Baku tried to make some adjustments by warning revanchist circles, which were very actively spreading promises to "return everything." Opposition leaders began to agitate the masses with such narratives. However, gradually the tone in the promises to "return everything" and "punish Baku" began to decrease. Because Azerbaijan has heard all these statements very well, which could interfere with plans for the stabilization and integration of the region. Therefore, President Ilham Aliyev warned harshly in an interview with Al Arabiya TV channel: if any future government of Armenia questions what was signed in Washington, the neighbor will face serious consequences, since the balance of power in the region is absolutely in our favor in all respects.

I think the warning was well heard in Armenia. It is noteworthy that none of the opposition candidates dared to question the Washington agreements or the signing of the peace treaty. All that their pathos was enough for was the promise to make the peace treaty "fair."

The Armenian voters did the right thing by voting for the peace proposed by Azerbaijan. The South Caucasus has a real opportunity to become a key - and thriving - international hub.