Decarbonization and pragmatism: how does Baku act?

According to media reports, US President Donald Trump has invalidated a 2009 document recognizing greenhouse gases as harmful to health. This will allow, in particular, to remove restrictions for the automotive industry. Trump called the so-called "endanger finding", adopted under Barack Obama, catastrophic and seriously damaging to the US automotive industry.

This decision, as many observers believe, put an end to the actively promoted policy of decarbonization and denigration of fossil fuels in recent years.

The atmosphere around the topic of decarbonization began to change immediately after Trump was elected President of the United States. The new head of the White House, unlike the previous administration, turned out to be an opponent of the green agenda, which inspired those who opposed it in Europe itself. The heads of large companies have spoken more boldly about the unacceptability of a radical green transition. In particular, in December 2024, an open letter from the owner of one of the world's largest steelmaking companies (ArcelorMittal Holding) appeared in the Financial Times Lakshmi Mittala. The entrepreneur complained about the unprecedented problems faced by the European steel industry due to the cost of decarbonization. Decarbonization of the industry requires huge investments and the use of currently non-viable green hydrogen.

Mittal would hardly have dared to talk about this and go against the Western trend if the newly elected US President had not been a proponent of traditional fuels. Of course, the problem of greenhouse gases and climate change exists and is a direct consequence of human activity, but the radical and categorical methods used by the trendsetters of "green" fashion did not look like a real concern for the planet. They sounded more like attempts at economic redistribution of the world and political pressure on oil and gas producing countries.

But the President of Azerbaijan told the truth before anyone else. In June 2024, at the opening of the Baku Energy Week, responding to demagoguery from Europe, he said: "We cannot be blamed for the fact that we have oil and gas. It's a gift from God." And at the opening of COP29 in Baku, the head of state spoke even more specifically: "Oil, gas, wind, sun, gold, silver, copper are all natural resources. Countries cannot be blamed for having these resources. Also, they should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market. Because the market needs them. People need them. So, here's my message: As president of COP29, we will, of course, strongly advocate for a "green" transition, and we are doing this. But at the same time, we must be realistic," President Ilham Aliyev said.

Back then, during the peak popularity of the topic of decarbonization, not every leader of a mining country would have risked going against the trend thoughtlessly promoted by the West and calling for a realistic view of things. It is clear that the author of such a categorical agenda could not be the East, where most of the producing countries are concentrated. Tellingly, the largest oil and gas producers in the Middle East have developed "green" technologies. Nevertheless, with the expansion of European "green" propaganda, our country has become a target for criticism, although, paradoxically, Europe itself buys Azerbaijani oil and gas. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, despite the strict requirements of the Paris document, EU countries have begun to increase purchases of Azerbaijani gas, Germany last year significantly increased imports of Caspian oil, and this year began to receive our gas. While criticizing Baku, the Europeans simultaneously viewed it as a partner in their energy security.

Radical decarbonization has proven to be an overly complex and expensive process. And today, the complete abandonment of fossil fuels is no longer seen as an achievable goal in the medium term. The modern world, with its industrial content, cannot do without oil and gas. The transfer of polluting industries to third world countries, as has always been practiced by Western countries, also does not justify itself from a climatic point of view, since it does not change anything for the problems that have already formed on the planet.

Many are already beginning to realize the need for balance and the lifting of strict restrictions for oil companies. Some corporations, under pressure, began to refocus on "green" projects and curtail oil and gas. European banks have stopped financing projects related to fossil fuels. And again, the paradox is that all this was done against the background of the abandonment of Russian gas and energy starvation. The EU shares its expectations for the expansion of Azerbaijani supplies, but no one talks about who will pay for the expansion of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Azerbaijan is ready to expand supplies, especially since additional volumes of gas are being released with the introduction of alternative energy sources in the country. However, he is not ready to finance the project, while the Europeans do not even want to sign long-term contracts.

At the Baku Energy Week 2025, President Ilham Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan's agenda regarding COP29 was very pragmatic. "She was far from populism and false narratives. It was based on pragmatic calculations of countries' demand for fossil fuels. And we see what happens in some countries when the balance between fossil fuels and green energy is not maintained. This causes power outages, energy collapse, and can lead to much more complex consequences. Therefore, I consider it the right policy to maintain balance and not follow the trends of the times, which sometimes dictate our steps," he said.

Another leader who dared to go against the harsh agenda was Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Speaking at the COP29 Leaders' Summit in Baku, Ms. Meloni said that there is currently no single alternative to the supply of fossil fuels, and called for a realistic global outlook and balance.

The balance between renewable energy and oil production is absolutely real. This is not a far-fetched narrative designed to ensure the economic interests of producing countries. It was in oil and gas producing Azerbaijan that the Garadagh solar power plant, the largest solar power plant in the region, built, among other things, by the UAE oil and gas producing company Masdar, started operating three years ago. In January 2026, the largest Khizi-Absheron wind power plant in the South Caucasus, built by another Middle Eastern partner of Azerbaijan, the Saudi company ACWA Power, was commissioned. And now the Bilasuvar SES is being built in Bilasuvar, which will surpass the Garadagh SES in terms of capacity. Mining Azerbaijan is acting while the Europeans are experiencing serious problems created by their own short-sightedness.

The participation of global oil giants in renewable energy projects in Azerbaijan can be cited as proof of the compatibility of seemingly contradictory agendas. BP is involved in the construction of a 240-megawatt solar power plant in Jabrayil, as well as in the electrification project of the Sangachal terminal. At the same time, the British oil giant continues to produce hydrocarbons in the Caspian Sea and is considering expanding its participation in projects.

There are very few European countries among Azerbaijan's partners in renewable energy projects. But the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China are actively cooperating with Baku in this area. I must say that these are the countries that have succeeded in advancing the decarbonization agenda. For example, China currently has two of the world's largest solar power plants, and the world's TOP 10 includes four solar power plants in this country. We also remind that Azerbaijan cooperates with China in terms of environmentally friendly transport.

Azerbaijan does not change the green agenda, it successfully combines it with the use of the wealth given to the Azerbaijani land. At the "Breakfast with the leadership of Azerbaijan" event organized by Euronews during the Davos Forum, President Ilham Aliyev stated that "we have well-founded hopes that we can experience a second very significant oil boom in Azerbaijan if exploration projects conducted by international energy companies produce good results. We hope so."

The era of fossil fuels is far from over. It's just not realistic. The development of the modern world is based on these energy sources. In order to abandon them, the world must completely technologically rearm, spending unthinkable amounts on this. Only then will it be possible to achieve the goal of decarbonization.

Saving the planet, stopping climate change, and restoring a clean atmosphere and healthy environment to people are wonderful and very important goals. Greenhouse gases really worsen the state of the atmosphere, but the fight against them should not turn into terror. Mindless decarbonization will lead not to saving the planet, but to new crises and wars. But I would like humanity to reach the era of clean air alive.