Trade bans and reality: Why Russia would lose more than Azerbaijan

By Akbar Novruz

Russian State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev has floated the idea of banning the import of Azerbaijani goods into Russia, claiming that Moscow would not lose anything from such a move, while Azerbaijan’s economy would be significantly affected. His remarks have sparked the question: Is Azerbaijan truly economically dependent on Russia, and which country would be more damaged by a halt in mutual trade?

In response, Azerbaijani MP Vugar Bayramov has dismissed Gurulev’s assertion, pointing to official trade statistics from both sides.

Speaking to Azernews, Bayramov argued that the numbers clearly show Russia, not Azerbaijan, would take the bigger hit if trade ties were disrupted.

“In 2024, the trade turnover between Russia and Azerbaijan was $4 billion 799 million. Azerbaijan imported $3 billion 621 million worth of goods from Russia, while we sent $1 billion 178 million worth of goods to Russia. This means that Azerbaijan had a negative balance of $2 billion 443 million in foreign trade with Russia. In other words, Russia earned $2 billion 443 million from trade with Azerbaijan last year alone. Any bans on mutual trade will reduce the volume of currency entering Russia from Azerbaijan. This means that Russian businessmen will suffer more,” Bayramov said.

The MP highlighted that Azerbaijan’s exports to Russia represent just 4.4 per cent of the country’s total exports.

“More than 95 per cent of our $26 billion 338 million in exports go to countries outside Russia. Even if Russia bans imports from Azerbaijan, this will not have a special impact on our country’s export potential,” he noted.

Bayramov also pointed out that remittance flows from Russia to Azerbaijan have been declining sharply, further weakening any economic dependency.

“In 2024, individuals transferred $496 million 753 thousand from Russia to Azerbaijan, which is 53 per cent less than the previous year. Azerbaijan is among the countries in the region with the lowest share of remittances in GDP, less than 3 per cent according to international financial institutions. So, in this direction, Azerbaijan has no dependence on either Russia or any other country,” he stressed.

Concluding his remarks, Bayramov called for more fact-based assessments of bilateral economic ties:

“As it turns out, even Russia's own statistical figures do not confirm what some Duma deputies say about trade with Azerbaijan. You need to look at statistics from time to time, gentlemen.”