Thomas Goltz: Georgia-Russia relations will remain as bleak as before

Day.Az: The Russia-Georgia war erupted in the Caucasus a year ago. Though it lasted less than a week, its consequences considerably changed the realities in the region. Could Georgia and Russia normalize ties in the foreseeable future?

Thomas Goltz: Frankly speaking, no. I think they will remain as bleak as before even in case incumbent Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is replaced.

Q: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has recently stated that the only appropriate decision in the given situation was Moscow’s recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and it is of an irreversible nature. Is it possible to expect more countries to recognize the independence of these regions in future?

A: I am very much doubtful about it. We are witnessing the same situation in case of Turkey and Northern Cyprus.

With regard to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia is the only major power that decided to legally recognize independence of these regions. This makes them [the regions] even more dependent on Moscow, which is, strictly speaking, what Russia needs.

Q: And what about the possibility of Russia’s recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence? Can Moscow take such decision under influence of certain circumstances?  

A: This is a big question. Of course, now there is a precedent in order to recognize the superiority of the concept of “self-determination” over the notion of “territorial integrity”, but I'm not sure to what extent Moscow wants to take similar steps to estrange Azerbaijan at the moment.

Q: Comparing the conflicts in Georgia with a conflict in Azerbaijan, I’d like to ask another question: What are the major differences between approaches of Presidents Saakashvili and Aliyev to resolution of territorial disputes that the countries encounter at the moment.

A: Saakashvili allowed dragging himself into a trap created as a result of Russian / South Ossetia provocation. The Georgian leader, to his great chagrin, supposed that the West would support him. I think Aliyev has a more pragmatic view on ongoing developments in the region.

Q: What Russia is likely to do in case Azerbaijan fails to resolve the conflict with Armenia peacefully and decides to liberate the occupied lands by force?

A: If once Russia gets actively involved in a new wave of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it will be catastrophic for the country that will oppose it.

/Day.Az/