Sargsyan and his painful dilemma

/By AzerNews/

By Mushvig Mehdiyev

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has just two options under the tense political and economic situation in his country: either to give up the power or undergo a deep political change.

Sargsyan is planning to change the form of government in Armenia through constitutional reforms aimed to change from the existing presidential republic system to a parliamentary republic. The latter system prepares the ground for emergence of a strong prime minister with wider power and a ceremonial presidency.

Political figures and experts believe that Sargsyan plans to run for the prime minister post following the termination of his presidency in 2018, as the constitution bans him to attend the vote for third consecutive term.

A struggle for positional advantage has recently started in Armenia's political arena, where Sargsyan lacks essential capacities to strengthen his position, or fight the forces against him. The new nationwide movement in the country has promised new prospects for growth and expansion. The latest protests revealed the public enthusiasm for power change in Armenia.

Sargsyan fails to cement his position due to several reasons, including the worsening of socio-economic conditions in Armenia, which proves that the authorities lack the required skill to remove the problem. Public dissatisfaction with the regime is growing both in wider society and among businessmen, as well as the representatives of various fields in the governmental pyramid.

One more problem urging Sargsyan to accelerate the constitutional reforms is a syndrome called "lame duck" as he is approaching the end of his presidential tenure without having a political heir. He earlier confessed that the changes to the constitution were difficult without wider socio-political consolidation. Sargsyan's consolidation call is, in fact, a desire to reach a deal with the strong oppositional force Prosperous Armenia Party, headed by the country's influential and wealthiest oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan. But Sargsyan's rhapsodic plans about the PPA was distorted by repeated announcements of the party's management about unacceptability of the changes to the constitution.

The current situation in Armenia's political stage has brought Sargsyan to a deadlock. If he avoids declaring constitutional reforms, he will not be able to cope with the ongoing political events in the post-Soviet country. But if he risks to stake everything on declaring a date for a referendum on changes to the constitution, he will simultaneously sign a resignation on his own will. Because, a vast majority of Armenians want to get rid of the Sargsyan regime and credibility of their votes in favor of the constitutional reform is lower than Atlantis.

Nearly 12,000 people rallied in the capital Yerevan this October to protest the constitutional changes, proposed by the president. They demanded the resignation of the government, blaming it for a dismal economic growth. That was the people's harbingering voice on the constitutional reforms showed that they opt for the same form of government, but without Sargsyan.

In this case, if Sargsyan vigilantly assess the ongoing events and decides to withdraw his reforms to distance himself from a constitutional adventure, he can start a smooth change of power, receiving a guarantee of safety from the people. An early parliamentary elections within the next months could lay the foundation of a new quality power in Armenia following a new period without Sargsyan.

Public disagreement with Sargsyan's policy is obviously on rise in Armenia and the controversial reforms to constitution could boost the public dissatisfaction. The president has an option to ignore anti-reform calls and declare a referendum on the constitutional changes on a certain date. What could happen after it? The outraged crowd of the people and oppositional forces will stand face to face with Sargsyan and his oligarchic circle. This will turn into an explosion to ignite Armenia's political battlefield.

Now, it is not too late for Sargsyan to surrender the power and start a quiet life far from Armenia or within his native land. Otherwise, the ongoing political processes will absorb him to end his political life. In a nutshell, Sargsyan has enough time to decide between a happy end and an evil finish.