STRATFOR expert: The Caucasus is far more dynamic and complex than a map would suggest

"The Caucasus is, geopolitically speaking, an extremely important and strategic region. As a land bridge between the Black and Caspian seas and a trans-continental zone between Europe and Asia, the Caucasus is significant in multiple ways because of its location. Adding to these geographical dynamics is the presence of three small states – Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan – sandwiched between three much larger ones – Russia, Turkey and Iran. This is all information that is easily gleaned from looking at a map; the region’s true importance is less obvious.

A map would not tell you that Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent states only 20 years ago. Nor would it tell you that Russia, Turkey and Iran were all once major empires. It certainly would not tell you that all of these former empires are once again rising in their own unique ways, and that even some of the smaller countries are beginning to make a name for themselves as significant regional players", said STRATFOR’s Eugene Chausovsky in the report on his recent trip to the Caucasus – "A Journey Through the Caucasus".

"In short, the Caucasus is far more dynamic and complex than a map would suggest, and that is one of the reasons I visited this region: to get a first-hand perspective of the Caucasus”, the expert said.

“While I try to follow the countries in the Caucasus in terms of news and current events as closely as I can on a regular basis, I have learned that there is no substitute for seeing a place with your own eyes -- particularly in the Caucasus. In Azerbaijan, instead of reading about the latest rise in the country’s oil and natural gas exports or examining statistics on annual gross domestic product growth, I saw economic growth first-hand in the form of seemingly endless construction projects and gleaming new skyscrapers around Baku. Instead of reading about trade between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, I walked along the Bulvar on the Caspian Sea where I saw countless tankers and ships, a few of which I am sure were transporting goods to Kazakhstan".

He also shared his ideas about Georgia: "In Georgia, I realized just how small the country – and for that matter the Caucasus region – really was. Taking a car from Tbilisi to Gori on the only major east-west road in Georgia gave me a new understanding of the size of the country and the limits imposed by its mountainous terrain. Passing only a few kilometers from the border with the breakaway territory of South Ossetia, as well as the numerous internally displaced persons’ camps along the road, certainly put the 2008 Russia-Georgia war in perspective".

"In Turkey, taking a ferry from the Anatolian side of Istanbul to the European side allowed me to see the scope of a cosmopolitan, world-class city of 13 million that blends European and Islamic characteristics. Walking through Istanbul, it was easy to imagine why this city was the center of the Ottoman Empire and the Byzantine Empire before that. It was equally as easy to imagine Istanbul as the financial and cultural center of a country whose presence is felt in Baku and Tbilisi and beyond", the expert said.

"From spending time in the region, the lasting impression that I came away with is that the Caucasus is a region that is swiftly changing and one whose future is simultaneously promising and uncertain. The static position of the Caucasus on a map is no substitute for the dynamism that I witnessed in the region’s streets, roads, mountains, seas and, most importantly, its people".


/APA/