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Forecasts for Turkmenistan’s GDP growth in 2019-2021 revealed

10 January 2019 [12:57] - TODAY.AZ

By  Trend

Turkmenistan’s real GDP growth in 2019 is expected to stand at 5.6 percent, Trend reports citing the Global Economic Prospects released by the World Bank (WB).

WB estimates that the country’s GDP growth in 2018 was 6.2 percent.

As for the subsequent years, the outlook shows that Turkmenistan’s GDP growth will be equal to 5.1 percent in 2020 and drop to 4.9 percent in 2021.

In general, growth fell to an estimated 3.1 percent in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) in 2018 driven by a slowdown in Turkey and in Central European economies, according to the WB estimates.

"Turkish growth for this year has been revised sharply down due to substantial financial market stress and the associated economic effects, contributing to a deceleration in regional growth in 2019 to 2.3 percent. Growth in the region is expected to pick up to 2.7 percent in 2020, as a rebound in Turkey offsets a moderation in activity among other commodity importers. Risks are tilted to the downside and growing. They include the possibility of renewed stress in Turkey alongside larger-than-expected spillovers to the rest of the region, and unexpected shifts in policy," said the report.

The WB believes that the lingering effects of financial stress in Turkey are expected to further slow of regional growth in 2019.

"Growth is expected to slide to 2.3 percent, before recovering to 2.7 percent in 2020 (Figure 2.2.2). Excluding Turkey, regional growth is expected to average 2.6 percent during the forecast horizon, compared to 2.9 percent in 2018, with a gradual deceleration in Central Europe. This outlook is predicated on an orderly tightening of global financial conditions, oil prices averaging $67 in 2019-2021, a gradual slowdown in the Euro Area, and the absence of heightened geopolitical tensions," reads the report.

Growth in western ECA, excluding Turkey, is projected to gradually slow toward potential, driven by a slowdown in Central European economies, according to the WB.

"Domestic demand in this sub-region will be constrained by tight labor markets, while a continued slowdown in the Euro Area will limit export growth. Poland is expected to slow from 5.0 percent in 2018 to 4.0 percent in 2019, as Euro Area growth slows."

Growth in eastern ECA is forecast to slow in 2019, as the large economies including Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine decelerate, said the report.

"The VAT in Russia is expected to rise from 18 to 20 percent in 2019, weighing on near term growth. Kazakhstan’s economy is also expected to decelerate as oil production growth levels off and fiscal consolidation efforts continue."


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