The intricacies of diplomacy: why is the 3+3 meeting postponed?

In mid-August, shortly after the Washington summit, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan said in an interview with the Iranian IRNA news agency that the next 3+3 meeting could be held in Baku or Yerevan. He attributed this opportunity to the decision reached in Washington to unblock communications.

It should be recalled that the 3+3 format was created on the initiative of Azerbaijan after the Second Karabakh War and implies a platform for regional cooperation involving the three countries of the South Caucasus, Russia, Iran and Turkiye. Three meetings have already been held within the framework of this platform, which were held in Moscow, Tehran and Istanbul. Now it's the turn of the South Caucasus countries. Georgia has so far stayed away from the format, and in 2025 the meeting was supposed to be held either in Baku or in Yerevan. After the Washington agreements and the initialing of the text of the peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the opportunity to gather in the capital of one of these countries ceased to be a vague prospect. But the discussions between the parties did not yield results.

The reason was announced by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in Baku yesterday. According to the Foreign Minister, Azerbaijan offered to hold another meeting of the regional 3+3 format, first on its territory, and then in Armenia. In the current situation, Baku sees no reason for Yerevan to reject this proposal, he stressed.

"Following the meeting in Turkiye (October 2024 - Ed.), our delegation proposed to hold the next one in Azerbaijan. We have noted that after the organization of the meeting in Azerbaijan, we will agree to hold the next meeting in Armenia. Unfortunately, it was not possible to reach an agreement - the Armenian side did not agree with such a sequence," Bayramov said, adding that "we see no reason for Armenia to reject our proposal. At least, we don't see the logic in it. It remains valid."

In response, the Armenian Foreign Ministry, through its press secretary Ani Badalyan, stated that diplomatic work on organizational issues of the upcoming meeting in the 3+3 format continues, and "the key topic of discussion is the location of its holding."

The wording is complicated, it would be possible to put the idea much simpler: Armenia wants the meeting to be held in Yerevan first, and only then in Baku. In turn, the Azerbaijani side, not seeing any logic in this stubbornness, remains in its position. Judging by what the Armenian Foreign Minister said, Baku is not in the mood to let its neighbor go ahead. And the fourth 3+3 meeting will not take place in 2025. And if Armenia continues to be stubborn, it will not take place next year.

Why does Armenia want to be the first? In principle, the motives are quite clear. They are of an internal political nature. On the eve of the elections, Nikol Pashinyan wants to appear to be the one in charge of the situation. But the wrong reason was chosen for such a demonstration. And it follows from the traditionally incorrect view of the situation in the region. Thanks to the external support and peace-loving initiatives of the winner, Armenia began to mistakenly think that the parties have equal starting positions and Yerevan can also set conditions and claim a leading role in the unfolding processes. But in reality, this is not the case.

Armenia is not just a country that has lost the war. It happens, she's not the first and she won't be the last. The main thing for understanding the situation is not a military defeat, but what preceded it. The defeat of Armenia was preceded by many years of occupation of the neighbor's territories, accompanied by numerous crimes of the occupier. Almost thirty years is a very long time, which cannot be written off in the archive even for the sake of good neighborly relations. Therefore, Baku and Yerevan do not and will not occupy equal positions either in the peace process or in other issues, as Armenia will always owe Azerbaijan. After all, there was no repentance, there was no payment of reparations, there was not even a simple apology for the evil done. If Baku had set a goal to achieve all this, it would eventually have achieved its goal, but it would have taken years full of hostility and confrontation, and a lot of time would have been taken away from the region, which cannot be wasted in conditions when a new world order is looming. This would only weaken the position of the South Caucasus and open a free path for external players. Therefore, Azerbaijan has chosen the path of peace and cooperation. This is an unprecedented step, a concession that no winner has ever made in history.

Armenia should understand and accept this. There is no doubt that the ruling team is well aware of this, but they are afraid of how the visit of Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to Baku will be perceived and how it will affect future elections. It is possible that for this reason Yerevan is trying to delay the resolution of the issue and expects to do so when the balance of power in the country becomes finally clear. Meanwhile, the arrival of the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister to Armenia may bring points to Pashinyan, as it will be perceived in society as a concession from Baku.

It would be better for the Armenian side not to complicate matters, but to agree to hold a meeting in Baku. Azerbaijan, for its part, has already made enough steps forward. From the Armenian side, there are only words. So far, only Armenia is receiving dividends from the establishment of the peace process, and it is postponing its counter steps until "after the elections."

Let's take a look. Almost immediately after the war, Azerbaijan allowed Russian gas to be transported through its territory to Armenia due to some kind of accident on the Georgian pipeline. In October 2025, Azerbaijan lifted the ban on the transit of goods for Armenia through its territory. Grain from Russia and Kazakhstan has already passed through there. Now, according to Yerevan, the next step is the export of Azerbaijani petroleum products to Armenia. Baku stated that such an opportunity was being considered, and Georgia promised to allow oil for Armenians for free for the first time as a contribution to the peace process. In other words, the entire region is trying for lasting peace, and the actual culprit of all the problems is Armenia, which enjoys the opportunities that open up. For her part, she still has not taken any practical steps and has not proved what is really in the case.

The visit of the RA Deputy Prime Minister to Gabala within the framework of the work of the delimitation commissions is an unprecedented event in bilateral relations, but it is not a step forward on the part of the Armenian side. This is a working process, and the next time the Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister will participate in a meeting of the commissions in some Armenian city.

The "3+3" format is also a workflow. And Armenia should not try to get ahead of itself. She should remember who is dictating the terms in the region, and in no case forget how much she owes her peace-loving neighbor. So that I don't have to remind you.