Ukrainian expert about obstacles to deepen ties between Baku and Kiev and advantages of Azerbaijan in Karabakh conflict

How do you comment on statement by Ukrainian Minister of Fuel and Energy Yuriy Boyko that Azerbaijan has made a proposal to increase volume of oil supplies to Ukraine?

Proceeding from volumes of oil supplies from Azerbaijan and fact that diversification of oil supply never hindered anybody, that the Ukrainian pipelines are not filled up fully and have an opportunity to pump much larger volumes of oil than the volume they are pumping now, there are certainly good prospects for developing relations between our countries in this area. The only thing that confuses me is the fact that Mr. Boyko is not the first Ukrainian minister who makes the statement that there is a deal about larger shipments of Azerbaijani oil to Ukraine. Until now these kind of optimistic statements have not come true.

In your opinion, then why such statements are being made?

There are may be two reasons. The first is insufficient economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine. The second is unwillingness of Ukrainian officials to ensure that agreements reached become real projects. The fact that a similar case exists not only with Azerbaijan but also with China and other countries testifies to this.
 
Proceeding from this, how would you assess forecasts of experts who claim that in 2011 Odessa-Brody oil pipeline will be filled up at full capacity for the first time since its launch?

As you know, profitability of the Odessa-Brody oil pipeline will be achieved when at least 10 million tons of oil is pumped a year. That is, one must not only be able to reach a volume of oil transportation, but also find its final buyer. As far as I know, only Belarus is considered as such, at this point. According to media reports, Belarus has resolved all issues with Russia, including oil supply to this country. Under this scenario when it is possible to increase oil supplies via already existing pipeline, final buyer loses interest to increase the volume of purchases of "black gold". All this gives reason to doubt that in 2011 Odessa-Brody oil pipeline will be filled up at full capacity.

Will it be possible to significantly expand economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine in the next few years?
 
In my opinion, governments of both countries have a significant desire to deepen Azerbaijani-Ukrainian relations. But at the same time, there are significant obstacles to realizing this potential. First and foremost, I say that both Azerbaijan and Ukraine depend on a relationship between the world's leading nations to a large extent. In other words, for many years we will have to overcome parties who are not interested in broadening and deepening of the Azerbaijani-Ukrainian relations.

What is Ukraine position in the Karabakh issue? In your opinion, it is possible that Azerbaijan’s economic advantage over Armenia will help to de-occupy Azerbaijan’s territories by peaceful means?
 
Ukraine's position on the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict implies that our country recognizes and respects Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and believes that all the republics of the former Soviet Union should continue to exist in their earlier recognized borders. As for the prospects of resolving this conflict peacefully, it is possible through a large economic superiority over Armenia, but only in the long term.

In other words, increasing economic superiority of Azerbaijan over Armenia will lead to the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict in favor of Azerbaijan, only if that superiority continues to grow over more years. In this case, much of the world's political players will be interested in building normal relations with rich Azerbaijan, but not with poor Armenia. As a result, receiving external support, Azerbaijan will be able to resolve the conflict in its own favor.


/Day.Az/