European security expert: It is clear that Azerbaijan is much stronger than Armenia

How would you assess the military-political situation in the South Caucasus region? Which country in the region today has the strongest military?
 
Of course, I can not now cite the exact facts and figures, but it is clear that Azerbaijan is much stronger. However, Armenia tries to neutralize this difference through Russia and CSTO.
 
In your opinion, is a new war in Karabakh likely to erupt?
 
In my opinion, there will be no war. It makes no sense for Armenia to start a war. Level of economic development and welfare of the population in Armenia is much lower than in Azerbaijan.
 
Not so long ago, Russia and Armenia signed an agreement to extend stay of a Russian military base in Armenia while Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a document to enhance strategic cooperation. What do you think about this?

Turkey is already deeply involved in ongoing processes in this region. The military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan has been developing for many years and the same can be said about energy cooperation between the two countries. Turkey really is a very important player in this region. Besides, it is a NATO member and, plus, has a good relationship with Russia.
 
In your view, may Azerbaijan become a NATO member some time in future?
 
I do not think that Azerbaijan aspires to it at the moment. Although I should note that Baku and Brussels have successfully developed partnerships within the Partnership for Peace Program and Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. Azerbaijani military is also actively participating in NATO peacekeeping operations. The republic has good relations with NATO. On the other hand, only countries which have no domestic problems can be NATO members. This raises the question about the problem of the occupied lands in the territory of Georgia and Azerbaijan.
 
And how do you assess the prospects for deepening cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union?

The situation is quite different in this respect. The European Union is undoubtedly well aware of Azerbaijan’s energy value in terms of implementation of projects such as BTC pipeline, Nabucco, etc. Europe is also well familiar with the Karabakh problem. I was surprised to read information about possible elimination of the post of the special representative for South Caucasus, which, in my opinion, would be a foolish decision.

I think if we want to solve the problem of frozen conflicts, we cannot rely particularly on the role of NATO, which is a military organization and with which Russia has certain differences. Therefore, the EU can do much more in this respect. The European Union today is much more active than it was before, and unlike the OSCE, it can play a more effective role in military, peacekeeping and civilian missions in this region.
 
In addition, Azerbaijan, like five other former Soviet countries, is a party to the Eastern Partnership initiative. I believe that cooperation on this line should be further strengthened. The EU as a whole should be more deeply involved in solving regional problems. Moreover, I am confident that the EU should take over peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh, as this organization has all the necessary tools: diplomatic, military, socio-economic, etc. In other words, the EU can do many things here.
 
And how do you see the solution to the Karabakh problem?
 
I do not see Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent republic. Even if you do not take into account international law - that is a separate topic - such territorial units as Nagorno-Karabakh are too small and do not have the prerequisites for gaining independence. This refers to separatist movements in all regions. All of these entities should receive the highest status of autonomy within the country on whose territory they are located. In case of Nagorno-Karabakh, it should be within Azerbaijan with insuring rights of national minorities to use their language, culture, education, etc., but under the general jurisdiction of Baku.


/Day.Az/