Russian analyst says Armenia will fail to draw Russia into Nagorno-Karabakh war in event it resumes

An interview with a professor, director of the Center for Conservative Studies at the School of Sociology, Moscow State University, leader of the International Eurasian Movement, a famous Russian political scientist Alexander Dugin.
 
In your opinion, why did Russia decide to renew lease of its military base in Gyumri for 49 years while it had not yet expired?

I think this is a demonstration of a consistent orientation towards a strategic alliance with Russia by the Armenian leadership. We have seen that Yerevan has acted ambiguously lately. Some of his actions could be interpreted as not very friendly towards Russia.

I mean, flirting with the U.S., with the West in general. Ultimately, however, the Armenian leadership, examining the overall picture of the balance of power in the region, recognizing that the U.S. influence in the Middle East and Asia is on the wane, decided to fully concentrate on consolidating relations with Russia. In its turn, Moscow ensures its military and strategic presence in the South Caucasus and this is a matter of national security.

Can Russian armed forces in Gyumri enter the war on Armenia’s side in case of renewed hostilities in Karabakh?
 
The Russian army is asymmetric than any of the armies in the region. That is why Russia will not fight side by side with anyone. Russia is not a regional country that has concluded a pact of alliance with Armenia. This is a world power which has its own views on Armenia, as in case of other plans and on a number of other countries. So, it will be extremely difficult to draw Russia into Karabakh conflict, if not impossible.
 
As for a possible military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as I have said before, it is advantageous only to the U.S. And the extension of the lease of the Russian military base in Armenia largely cools the desire of the U.S. to push Baku and Yerevan for a war. At least, extending the lease of a military base will not hearten Armenia as it may seem at first glance, but will completely block the possibility of some reckless escapades the country may make. As for Russia, as I said, it acts solely in line with its interests. 

Can we expect some progress in the Karabakh conflict settlement after Dmitry Medvedev’s forthcoming visit to Baku?

I believe that today the Karabakh conflict is a stalemate: it can even be resolved through blood. Russia, of course, is interested in solving this problem. But there are no simple solutions. It is necessary to act gradually, step by step. Many nuances are of great importance in this conflict. Neither conflicting parties nor mediators have an ideal plan to resolve the conflict.

Everyone understands that this is a very complicated geopolitical conflict where there is no solution that would satisfy both sides. Someone will necessarily end up in a disadvantageous condition. As soon as the Karabakh problem begins to be solved, the fragile truce will collapse instantly and an unpredictable process associated with the blood will follow. But neither side needs this.

Therefore it is necessary to understand and admit that neither Russian President Dmitry Medvedev nor anyone else who would be in his place can offer some sort of breakthrough solution to the Karabakh conflict. Any solution that satisfies Armenia does not satisfy Azerbaijan and vice versa. Russia does not want bloodshed to happen. And it will try to influence the conflict so as to prevent it. Is the prevention of bloodshed solution to the Karabakh conflict? No, it is not.
 
I think Medvedev's visit to Baku will mainly focus on forming a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan. Moscow wants relations with Baku to be no worse than with Yerevan. And Moscow's efforts will now be focused on it.


/Day.Az/