What will the fate of Armenia-Turkey dialogue be after Sargsyan's statements?

In your opinion, what does the Armenian government’s decision to suspend ratification of the Armenia-Turkey protocols mean?

Of course, this is consequence of the Washington meetings which were a complete failure and where America put pressure on both Armenia and Turkey.

Each party pursued its own goals there. But I do not see any tragedy about Sargsyan’s statement, because, in fact, it is quite a common situation. For some reason we rush for the final result, assuming that ratification of protocols and opening of borders should happen quickly. Actualy, it is a process which will often see force majeure situation. This is like the process of Karabakh negotiations which has seen crises, the shooting in parliament and many other things so far. But the process continued, because it was understood that a war is the only alternative. We witness the same case at the moment. The sides are going to make more and more statements.

I do not exclude that in the future the Turkish side may take a similar step. Nevertheless, neither Turkey nor Armenia will dare to halt the ratification process completely since each of them is interested in this. I would even say that Armenia is more interested than Turkey. This move by Sargsyan is a kind of blackmail. But Turkey believes it does not need to hurry. Of course, it will ratify the protocols. But this will be done in the right time.

Situation in Armenia is different. Sargsyan does not enjoy strong position inside the country and faces constant pressure because of these protocols. That's why he wants to speed up this process. And this step is merely an attempt to exert pressure on Turkey. The United States will try to play a role in this matter because it is very interested in the process. So, I do not think that the process is completely dead. It will continue.

Why did he decide not to listen to calls by Obama, Sarkozy and Medvedev not to pause, and continue the process?

A lot of things may happen during any process. Serious pressure or even sanctions are last resort undertaken at the last minute. No one will put pressure on Armenia at the moment. It's voluntary on both sides of the process of rapprochement. Armenians will be persuaded again and after a while everything will come again in motion and the negotiations will continue.

Sargsyan also said that he was confident he took the only right decision that meets national interests of Armenia. Is this a trick of some sort? What does he have in mind?

When saying national interests, he has in mind that recognition of the so-called "genocide” is the issue number one for Armenia and, secondly, they are against linking establishing relations with Turkey with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In reality, Turkey also does not want to spoil relations with Azerbaijan, and therefore tries to somehow link the two processes. Armenia is totally against this. Armenian President means these two points when saying national interests of Armenia.

Can the ongoing events impact the Armenia-Azerbaijan talks?

There can be no direct impact. First, Armenia has not given a clear answer whether it accepts or rejects the updated version of the Madrid principles.

Generally, we may draw some analogy between Sargsyan’s current statement and what we often see in the course of the Nagorno-Karabakh process. Because when the talk were suspended or stalled because of Armenia, Azerbaijan announced it is possible to resort to alternative ways to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, that is, by force of arms. It is a specific mechanism to influence the opposite side.

Armenia is using precisely this method to exert pressure on Turkey in order to somewhat change course of negotiations on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Armenia is unlikely to succeed one way or another. The ratification process will be restored, anyway.


/Day.Az/