Rasim Musabeyov: "Moscow's persecution of its own interests, rather than Armenians' excess expectations in the issue of the Caucasus policy, has become an unpleasant surprise for Armenians"

- Russian State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin announced that "the package of the Karabakh solution, envisioning recognition of "Nagorno Karabakh Republic" and return of the seven regions has been developed long before". Why was it made public only now? Is this statement true?

- I would recommend you not to pay too much attention to Zatulin's words. He is speaking on the problems of conflicts and the situation in the post-Soviet area too much, but he bears little connection to the adoption of important foreign political decisions of Russia. Moreover, Zatulin is not an objective person. He is merely pro-Armenian and does not conceal it.

I would like to remind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in open after the August events in Georgia and recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia that Russia does not intend to make similar steps towards Nagorno Karabakh. It is obvious that currently Moscow is persuading Armenians for the goodwill withdrawal of their troops from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan. Russia seems to be more concerned over meeting its own economic and strategic interests than recognition of independence of Nagorno Karabakh.

As for why Zatulin is saying so, if he made this statement by his own initiative, it means he is trying to develop his friendship with  Yerevan and Karabakh separatists to provoke a negative reaction in Azerbaijan. But I do not rule out that a necessary background is created by such statements for those agreements, to which the parties will come at the upcoming meeting in Moscow under Medvedev's mediation, to seem more appropriate for our public.

- Armenia considers that Russia make cautious statements on Nagorno Karabakh conflict being unwilling to spoil relations with Azerbaijan due to oil and gas transportation. Do you agree with it?

- They are right, but Russia's interest in Azerbaijan is not limited with the oil and gas issues and the issues of their transportation to the world markets. Azerbaijan is an attractive growing market. Moreover, it is profitable, as compared to Armenia. The Russian defense industry complex would have been glad to sell arms to us, but we do not trust to Moscow due to the Karabakh conflict and Moscow does not supply advanced ammunitions to us, as it may be used against its outpost - Armenia.

Moreover, in order to preserve any military balance, Moscow will have to increase financial aid to Armenia, transfer arms to it free of change, which implies direct losses. Azerbaijan is an important partner in the North-South transport corridor, unlike Yerevan, which is unable to help Moscow to preserve stability in the North Caucasus and neutralize Islamist terror and radical groupings.

Therefore, the constructive interaction with Baku is important. Azerbaijan's position is important for Moscow also due to the strained situation in Iran and Georgia.

In other words, the volume and importance of political and economic relations between Russia and Azerbaijan do not fall under comparison with Armenia. Moscow is with Armenia at heart, but its real interests are targeting Azerbaijan. Therefore, Armenians are anxious that they can become a token coin in the large political poker, laid in the region.

- How do you assess the recent visit of Dmitri Medvedev to Yerevan and his statements, made in Armenia?

- The visit was an ordinary one. The Armenian-Russian agenda was so poor that it is difficult to present any significant results of this visit to the world and their own publics. They opened a Russian square in Yerevan, spoke of the Karabakh conflict and privileged gas prices, situation with Georgia. Fantastic projects of construction of an oil refinery in Megri are not from the sphere of real policy, especially in conditions of the approaching global financial crisis. That's it. Medvedev has not made any significant statements during his visit to Armenia. He did not visit the Russian military base and did not rejoice Armenians as regards the Karabakh conflict.

- Don't you think that the format of the OSCE Minsk Group about the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is threatened due to the global processes, related to Russia and the United States? Is the OSCE Minsk Group effective today?

- It is obvious that differences between the co-chairs are observed following Russia's August actions. Even representatives of France Bernard Fassier and the United States Matthew Bryza paid their recent visits to the region in separate. In such conditions it is difficult to say that the Minsk group is effective. But it is also early to put this format to the archive. Though the whole period of its work the Minsk Group has managed to make the positions of the conflict parties closer. I am sure that any agreements will anyway base on the initiatives of the Minsk Group. Moreover, I do not exclude that if the sides do not come to a mutually profitable compromise, a Minsk conference will be convened for definition of the status of Nagorno Karabakh, as it has been envisioned by the initial mandate of the OSCE on the said issue.

Moscow's persecution of its own interests, rather than Armenians' excess expectations, in the issue of the Caucasus policy, have become an unpleasant surprise for Armenians, though most far-seeing politicians warned them of the inevitability of such a turn. History repeats, as it occurred in the early last century, when Armenian claims fell victims of the relations with Baku and Ankara. But despite the total dependence on Moscow, Armenians will protract the conflict. Notably, in the threshold of the decisive talks in Moscow the Armenian opposition started to support Sargsyan to demonstrate stubbornness, demonstrative trainings were held urgently in Nagorno Karabakh and bellicose statements are voiced. But it will hardly work. In the conditions of the financial crisis, Armenia, fully dependent on external monetary flows, is not able to resist external pressure. Today Yerevan is envious about Georgia, which  got a promise of $5bln from the United States in a response to Russian intervention. I think that Armenians' last hope is for Obama's victory in the US presidential elections and his fulfilling his promise regarding recognition of "genocide" and provision of support of the variant of the Karabakh resolution profitable for Armenia and allocate financial aid to Armenia in exchange for Armenians support to him.

- Don't the recent events and Medvedev's visit to Yerevan prove that Russia decided to strengthen its influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan by mediating the Karabakh issue?

- I expected Medvedev to put forward an initiative on overcoming the deadlock in the Karabakh issue and I have repeatedly stated that in my interviews and comments, including for Day.Az. The Georgian events of August showed that it is impossible to preserve the current state of "neither peace nor war". Conflicts "defreeze". Moscow probes to consolidate its weakened influence in the region through promotion of the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict for the parties to be grateful to it and to preserve its influence as a super-arbiter in the issue of the status and security. Moreover, this is the only way by means of which Russia may open communications for military cargoes to its outpost Armenia, cut after the war between Russia and Georgia.

Well, stubbornness is a feature of the Armenian natural character. This made them successful in handicrafts, science, trade and sports. But as for geopolitics, such feature often leads to reassessment of one's potential and they missed the real achievements while pursuing greater goals. Armenia is blocked between Turkey, which is ten times as stronger as it is and Armenia, which is outstripping Armenians for population and economic might by three or four times. The correlation is changing not in Armenia's favor and no efforts of the diaspora and external supporters would be able to change this balance.

I can not claim that it is now time for the reasonable assessment of the situation and the Russian mediation of the Karabakh conflict will be productive. We have previously witnessed that under such a mediation, for example of French president Jacquie Chiraque at the meeting of Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Paris or under mediation of US Secretary of State Collin Powell in Ki-West the states came closer to attaining an agreement. Yet, they finally made a step behind. But there are still chances for the progress in the conflict resolution and it would be good if they come true.

/Day.Az/