Arif Yunusov: "Pro-Russian moods in Armenia will be preserved until the Karabakh conflict is settled and there is a genetic fear of Turkey"

- How would you comment on results of the Gallup sociological service survey, which revealed attitude to the state policy of Russian on the post-Soviet area?

- Social polls are held to get answers to questions in the political or socioeconomic spheres of life. It is necessary to reveal the attitude of the population to any service or goods. Someone needs to know how population will vote for any candidate or how it treats the policy of any country.

Everything depends on the purposes of the poll, set by the customer. If the Gallup sociological service is implied, this is one of the influential organizations in the world. The results of its polls are always treated seriously, especially in the United States. But at the same time, one fact should be taken into account: the value of each poll depends on its concreteness. I do not take the polls, which are conducted throughout the world and in the result we are announced that any drink is treated like that in the country and so on.

This is all conditions things and the results of such kind of world polls are not always realistic. On the whole, the polls should be treated carefully, Here, methodological criteria (number of respondents, categories of population covered, age and place of residence, living conditions and political and other views, whom it was conducted by, at which time) are important and it is also necessary to take into account the openness of the population.

Most sociological services conduct regular polls and I also conduct such polls and therefore I know it for sure how difficult it is to trust to the data here. People may answer one way and may think or react in the elections differently.

Polls are a normal event in the United States and in the West and they have no problems with getting objective information as people are not afraid of answering. People on the post-Soviet area are too insincere in their questions. Polls have not become a part of our everyday life. Especially if they are related to political aspects of life, not speaking of the engagement of those, who conduct the polls. Let's recall the polls, conducted due to the elections and the reaction they have caused.

- Then is the information stating that 66% of Azerbaijani population positively assess Russian policy true?

- I am afraid that the results of the poll have not been presented to use correcticely. For example, in Azerbaijan we see one and the same picture. When country residents are asked to pointthree most friendly and unfriendly states for Azerbaijan, we see that Russia is in the top three  most friendly and unfriendly states for Azerbaijan. It takes the second place among the most friendly ones (following Turkey) outstripping others dramatically. At the same time, in these polls Russia is regularly on the top list of three unfriendly countries following Armenia and Iran. While in 2002-2004 it was the third among unfriendly countries, in 2005-2007 it became the second, leaving Iran behind.

In other words, if not taking into account positive attittute to Turkey and negative to Armenia, Russia is leading both as friendly and unfriendly to Azerbaijan. I had the same result when I conducted the poll in 2006. moreover, the respondents were asked an additional question about their attitude to the Russian policy and made it clear that 49% were negative on the policy and only 15% positive,

These gaps in figures is explained by the fact that today two Russias exist for Azerbaijan: one is friendly, or at least neutral, it is a close trade and economic partner. "Another" Russia takes a negative position in such issue important for Azerbaijan as the Karabakh conflict and is not interested in its resolution, being a strategic ally of enemy Armenia.

Therefore, I think 66% Azerbaijanis treat positively not Russian policy in the region but Russia itself as a country and Russians

- How do you explain the fact that by this poll 62% of Armenian population is quite negative about the state policy of Russia?

- I also do not trust this figure. It is too false and differs from what Armenian sociologists get during their polls. Even if we admit that the polls conducted by Armenian sociologist have falsified, different should not be so sharp. Not speaking of it should be substantiated. Sharp and cardinal events should have occurred in Armenia regarding Russia. It is true that there have been changed  in Armenia regarding Russia. A new generation, which is more oriented for the West and western values has appeared in Armenian society. They prefer to study in Western Universities and are not conservative as the old generation.

But, I repeat, these are two different things. Loving to live in a western country is one thing and not loving Russia is another. There is such a concept as Armenian mentality, which formed not for even one century and nothing changes so rapidly within some ten years. At least, for Armenians.

Therefore, when I compare these figures with those presented by Armenian sociological services, I see a great difference. I would repeat once more that figures in the polls, conducted in Armenia, also differ but they do not differ much on such important problems or issues as Nagorno Karabakh or attitude to Russia and Turkey and the dynamics is observed. For example, Russia is constantly leading  as the most friendly country in Armenia, even more so the gap between it and the second one on the list (as a rule, this is France) is too significant. Anyway, almost 75-85% of Armenian population considers Russian friendly and suddenly we are informed that only 38% treat Russia positively or neutral. The gap is great. What has happedn in Armenia, which led to such figures? I would repeat that I do not trust this figure, of course, if the information is true.

- But can not it be proposed that such figures are a result of good work of the United States in Armenia and indicate that most Armenian society did not vote for the Kremlin successor Serzh Sarkissyan at the presidential elections in this country?

- We do not know when this poll was conducted- before or after the elections. The plus is that we do not know in which settlements of Armenia, which is also important. For example, pro-Western moods are strong in the capital of Armenia and weaker in its provinces. Therefore, we should speak not on the result of a sociological poll, which has too fragmentary scanty information and not concretely presented but about the overall situation in Armenia and policy of external forces.

Certainly, Americans held a very active and thorough policy in Armenia and among local population. In this sense Russia is losing. Its external policy in our region is on the whole too aggressive and ineffective and at the same time not thoroughly analyzed. Russia holds alienating policy even towards Armenians which are its allies. The rapid growth of pro-western moods in Armenia can be explained only by this.

Moreover, they began to realize that they are in the deadlock. Of course, when speaking to Azerbaijanis Armenians do not admit that (with rare exceptions). But they realize that Russia's support led Armenia to a deadlock and Armenia does not win from the one-sided orientation on Russia and sees changes in Georgia and Azerbaijan with their orientation on the west.

- Doesn't this poll prove the striving of the Armenian society for radical changing its vector towards the United States?

- Here I would recommend not to have such radical views aboutsituation in Armenia. Yes, the striving for strengthening of West's role in Armenia is evident. But at the same time, we should understand that the ground for preservation of pro-Russian moods among Armenians is very strong. We should make it clear that pro-Russian moods in Armenia are not unsubstantiated, but were a result of a more than two centuries of policy and propaganda of Russia among Armenians. These moods will be preserved until the Karabakh conflict is settled and until there is a genetic fear of Turkey. As soon as the Karabakh issue is settled, the pro-Russian moods in Armenia will melt away. But today, these two factors are a basis for preservation of pro-Russian moods.

In other words, Armenians can be dissatisfied with Russia's policy, even not love it or voice resentment about it (especially about rise in prices on energy sources or murder of Armenians in Russia) but if they put direct question they would look in the direction of Russia, no matter how strong the scent of western democracy is.

- Does it mean that you rule out possible changes in external policy of Armenia and its ability to turn into US satellite?

- Open confrontation between the West (especially the United States) and Russia is obvious in our region. And struggle is for the moods of population in our region. It will be reflected primarily during the conflicts (if hostilities are renewed) as well as during the presidential and parliamentary elections. But in the near future I do not believe that Armenia will take US side and will be anti-Russia. Let's not exaggerate the results of these polls.

We should speak of Armenians intention to use this confrontation between Russia and the United States for its own interests. They can do it effectively. Moreover, this is taking place at present. Armenia is considered the ally of Russia and Iran and even gets financial and other aid from the United States and other Western countries. We are far behind them in this issue.

/Day.Az/