Sergey Markedonov: "We will not make it up with Armenians for you"

- What do you think about the meeting of Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to be held in Saint-Petersburg?

- The forthcoming meeting of the two president will be of psychological nature. Serzh Sarkissyan has just won the presidential elections. The meeting was also prepared by newly appointed Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan. It should be taken into account that the meeting of the two Presidents will be held on the background of the recent undesired events, evidencing, sharp worsening of bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Here, we can recall the large armed clash of March 5 of 2008 on the contact front line, fixed since the moment of ceasefire agreement signing, discussion of the Karabakh problem in the UN General Assembly, declaration of the Armenian parliament about the need for closer cooperation between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh, which means a period of tough counteraction between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

- What is expected from the meeting of the presidents?

- Perhaps, there are expectations that "a new leader may turn out to be more compliant"? Each new leader also wants to attain a breakthrough. This can also be applied to Dmitri Medvedev in Russia and Serzh Sarkissyan in Armenia. At the same time, both Medvedev and Sarkissyan are only formal newcomers. Armenian President has serious political experience. He has been the defense Minister and the Prime Minister. Sarkissyan is biographically connected with Nagorno Karabakh, where he started his career.

As for the Russian President, he is a member of Vladimir Putin's team, who has not left the politics and continues to influence the Kremlin's external policy.

I do not think that a breakthrough will be attained during the meeting in Saint Petersburg. The meeting is more likely to be accompanied by information war, high expectations and similarly high disappoinment. The circle of positions will be repeated.

- Why?

- Because the positions of the parties are mutually exclusive. For Azerbaijan this is primarily Armenia's aggression and for Armenia is the fight of Nagorno Karabakh people for self-determination. These factors do not give hope for any serious breakthrough in the negotiation process.

Anyway, a meeting of the presidents is better than hostilities. But one should not expect a breathrough during the meeting.

- Doesn't the newly elected president of Russia, who undertook to arrange the meeting of the two Presidents of the conflicting countries, attempt to demonstrate Moscow's role to settle frozen conflicts on the post-Soviet area.

- Kremlin's role in the Caucasus region has not been defined by the election of Dmitri Medvedev as president. Russia's role in this region started to grow under Yeltsin. Ceasefire in Nagorno Karabakh conflict was attained owing to the Russian diplomacy.

Vladimir Putin has also been active in this direction. Former Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov, being in Baku twice, spoke of deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in the conflict area. Last year the meeting of Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan was held in Saint Petersbug on the same day during the informal summit of the CIS.

As is seen, Moscow's active participation in the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict started long before Medvedev was elected a Presidemt. Russia is also partially a Caucasus state. Most processes, related to Nagorno Karabakh, may affect the security of Moscow itself. Both Armenians and Azerbaijanis are among top ten large ethnic communities of Russia. Therefore, Moscow's interest is understandable.

The Kremlin, as a USSR successor, also bears responsibility for political security on the post-Soviet area. I do not think that this is exclusively Dmitri Medvedev's PR campaign.

Russian can not limit its activity by the OSCE Minsk Group framework. Moscow tries to take the peacekeeping position.

- Do you agree that the key to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement is in the Kremlin?

- No, I do not. The key to it is in Washington, Brussels, the United Nations and in Nagorno Karabakh, like in Transdniestria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Until the sides are ready for minimal compromise, external attempts will not be successful. External attempts could be more active and effective.

Anyway, everything depends on the sides. We will not make it up with Armenians for you.

/Day.Az/