Armenia loves with ears: Armenian dreams of corridors

The opening of a railway to Turkiye is being enthusiastically discussed in Armenia. The road, like the border, has been closed since 1993. After the Karabakh conflict ended, our neighbors decided that the borders and roads would open automatically, but the automation did not work. It turned out that to restore communications, it's not enough just to lose the war, you need to fulfill many other conditions to prove that you deserve to be taken out of isolation.

The government estimates that it will take about a year to launch the Armenian section of the Gyumri-Kars railway. With the support of the now-deceased USAID, a preliminary estimate of the cost of the upcoming work was carried out within the framework of the Crossroads of the World project - 32 and a half million dollars. It is not reported from which sources Yerevan plans to receive this amount. Most likely, the calculation was made on the US Agency for International Development, which will no longer be able to help Armenia.

According to Armenian media, in August last year, Armenia and Turkiye agreed to consider the possibility of launching a railway connection between the two countries. A meeting of special representatives for the settlement of relations was held at the border, at which the parties agreed, in accordance with regional trends, to assess the technical needs that will create opportunities for the launch of the Akyaka-Akhurik railway border checkpoint. But it didn't go any further. Firstly, because there is no money, and secondly, it has not been possible to eliminate the Azerbaijani factor in Yerevan's relations with Ankara. Besides, restoring one section to the border with Turkiye will not solve anything. It is necessary to repair the old and build new railways in Armenia so that we can talk about transit. And the repair of existing railway lines alone will cost Yerevan 500 million dollars. Nikol Pashinyan tried to attract investors by advertising his "crossroads" all over the world, but there are no people willing to invest in the dead-end project yet. Everyone understands that before the establishment of peace and the opening of borders, it is not serious to talk about the economic effect of investments. Everything may not go as promised in Yerevan. The borders may not open at all, may not open soon, or Armenian transit may not be in demand. Agreeing on the points of the peace treaty does not mean signing it, but there are already established and effective transit routes in the region. Armenian transit still needs to prove its advantages, which may take years. 

Recently, the Armenian side has received a small dose of inspiration, and from where it did not expect. At the end of April, in an interview with the Turkish media, Charge d'affaires of the People's Republic of China in Armenia Chen Min stated that China is preparing to open a new chapter of the One Belt, One Road initiative with the participation of Armenia. To this end, Beijing and Yerevan will soon sign an agreement in the transport sector. The Chinese diplomat announced that "these projects will change the economic map of the South Caucasus."

Such a statement, made by the Chinese side for the first time, caused euphoria in Armenia. Although the diplomat's words, apparently, were just words with nothing behind them, in Armenia they were glad to hear something they could not even dream of. In this case, the joy is twofold - both from the fact that Armenia has finally been seen, and from the fact that China is a major investor who invests in the projects he needs. Armenia has decided that the Armenian transit is important for Beijing for some reason, and Beijing will pay for everything accordingly, as it does in Central Asia, for example.

How exactly China will integrate Armenia into the Belt and Road, and what the transport agreement will be about, has not been announced. It is clear that we cannot talk about the Middle Corridor, because Beijing knows the geography well. Despite the discussions that have begun in the Armenian media, we note that we are most likely talking about the southern route of the Chinese initiative. This is a car route, and Yerevan should not count on a fantastic cargo turnover along it.

It should be recalled that at the end of May last year, the first truck arrived in Yerevan from Shanghai, passing through the territories of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran. The truck made this journey in three weeks. Celebrations and speeches were held in Yerevan on the occasion of the truck's arrival. It was announced that the "crossroads" had become a reality. Meanwhile, a month later, a cargo truck arrived in Baku from China, which left Alashankou (China), passed through Kazakhstan and Russia and reached Azerbaijan in just 6 days without any problems. The difference is huge.

But diversification, of course, never hurts, and China is doing just that. At the same time, we should not forget that we are not talking about the railway, but about the automotive segment of the project. It will not provide for investments in the modernization of the country's railway network. Namely, railways require large investments. The restoration of the Hrazdan-Ijevan-Gazakh road will cost Armenia more than $300 million, and the construction of a dismantled road through Meghri from scratch will cost more than $60 million. In Armenia, they are wondering whether it is worth spending money, and they doubt the economic effect. Which, frankly, is surprising. What is surprising is not that the neighbors do not want to spend money, but that they question the vital importance of opening communications. They are afraid to lose. After all, we have lived in isolation for more than thirty years - and nothing, we are alive. Maybe, Armenian experts argue, it's not worth emptying the budget?

But in Armenia they like to talk about how Turkiye, Azerbaijan, China and the whole of Eurasia need the opening of communications. Some routine statements give food for such arguments to the "loving ears" of the Armenian side. As the words of the same Charge d'affaires of the People's Republic of China. Or the statement of Turkish MP Ahmed Arslan that the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, they say, "will lead the region out of the impasse and allow Kars access to Central Asia through Armenia." It is difficult to imagine how Turkiye can connect with Central Asia through Armenia.

And let us remind you that Turkiye currently has the opportunity to connect with the Central Asian countries through the Middle Corridor, the railway segment of which is Baku-Tbilisi-Kars. It is unlikely that the Turkish MP did not know about this.

Armenia is forced to focus on the corridor to Turkiye through Nakhchivan, because the Azerbaijani side is ready to consider another route through Ijevan only after the implementation of the Zangezur corridor. Azerbaijan does not need a road through Ijevan. But Armenia needs it to use the entire railway network, which has fallen into complete disrepair without international transportation.

At one time, 80 percent of the cargo to Armenia went by rail through Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani direction has always been vital for the Armenian side. This country has never been a transport hub, and it does not understand that one desire is not enough for this. It takes years of hard work and a lot of money for the dreams of delivering goods from India and Iran to Europe and Russia via Armenia to become an indispensable link between the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea to come true.

But even more important is good relations with neighbors. And you can't do that anywhere.