Opening of regional communications: equating to TRIPP

Last week, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan appealed to the Russian side with a request to fully restore the sections of the railway leading to Azerbaijan and Turkiye. He stated this at a briefing after the government meeting. Pashinyan appealed to the South Caucasus Railways with a request to urgently begin the full restoration of the railway from Yeraskh to Nakhchivan and Akhurik. The Armenian Prime Minister also said that he intends to contact his Russian partners regarding the restoration of part of the Ijevan-Gazakh railway.

SCR is a 100% subsidiary of Russian Railways OJSC, which manages the railways of Armenia on the basis of a concession agreement.

In October, Azerbaijan lifted all restrictions on the transit of goods to Armenia through its territory, and recently a train of 22 tankers with Azerbaijani gasoline arrived in the neighboring country.

Yerevan is trying to respond adequately to Baku's goodwill and demonstrate that it is also ready to contribute to the opening of communications. These intentions are welcome, but they cannot replace the priority that the Zangezur Corridor is for Azerbaijan. Baku has already taken steps of goodwill, trying to encourage its neighbor to step up in this direction. It is the road through Meghri that is of primary importance for Azerbaijan as a transit route through Armenia to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, and from there to Turkiye.

A WORD TO THE EXPERT

Rauf Agamirzaev, expert on transport and logistics:

"Yerevan made proposals to open these sites four years ago. There is nothing new here. However, the situation in the region has changed - an agreement was reached on the "Trump Route", Azerbaijan opened transit for Armenia. That is, through the efforts of our country, the issue of unblocking communications has broken the deadlock, and Armenia can no longer delay solving the tasks that fall to its lot. Pashinyan's request refers to the road that goes to Kars and the line that goes to Siadyariak. These roads, which Nikol Pashinyan is asking SCR to restore, will be implemented synchronously with TRIPP, that is, with the Zangezur Corridor project. The road that will allow us to connect the mainland of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic will make it possible to simultaneously implement a project that will provide access from Yerevan to Meghri and Gafan. Another part of the issue is Armenia's exit through Gyumri to Kars. Armenia will also be able to access Julfa through Syadyariak, and from there to Iran. That is, after the opening of the Zangezur corridor and the Gyumri-Kars section, Armenia will have access to both Turkiye and Iran. In addition, through the railway network of Azerbaijan - to the port of Alat and further to the countries of Central Asia. All these projects are, in principle, quite acceptable on a budget. For example, the Gyumri-Kars and Yeraskh-Syadyariak sections will cost $16-17 million, the road through Zangezur will cost about $223 million, and the Razdan-Dilijan-Ijevan-Gazakh road will require $500 million to rebuild. The opening of communications will be carried out in stages. But TRIPP will remain the priority. The implementation of all other projects depends on how actively work will be carried out on this site. I think in 2026 we will see activity in all areas.   Azerbaijan itself has been working since 2021. Next year, both railways and highways along the Goradiz-Agbend route will be put into operation. In November, a railway was laid from Ordubad towards Armenia, and it is planned to begin upgrading the existing railways of the autonomous republic. There is a positive dynamic that allows us to draw conclusions about how actively Azerbaijan is working to unblock the region and how ready it is to accept traffic. Azerbaijan cares about unblocking not in words, but in deeds. We hope that next year we will see the same activity from the Armenian side."

Recall that in August, Nikol Pashinyan announced Russia's possible participation in investments in the reconstruction of railway communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He expressed the opinion that Russian Railways may be interested in financing the repair of the Ijevan-Hrazdan and Ijevan-Gazakh road sections.

Pashinyan's insistence on this route is understandable. He is afraid to start the construction of the Zangezur corridor without any counterweight. The restoration of the Dilijan-Ijevan-Gazakh line can serve as a counterweight. This will allow him to show the public and the opposition that he is not "following Baku's decree," as he is accused of, but is implementing his "Crossroads of the World," according to which the road through Meghri will be built. This is a psychological moment, and Pashinyan wants to avoid diagnoses from "psychologists" in the person of his predecessors and their supporters.

That's understandable. However, TRIPP's priority for Azerbaijan remains unchanged. Yerevan should have realized this already when, after the opening of Azerbaijani transit for Armenia, Pashinyan offered Azerbaijan to use the existing Margara-Yeghegnadzor-Sisian-Goris highway running from the Turkish border. The suggestion was met with silence. This road exchange was unequal. Moreover, Baku expects Yerevan to be active in the direction of the Zangezur project. So far, in this matter, all the energy of the Armenian side is going into words.

A round table was recently organized in Washington as part of the "Trump's TRIPP Route" initiative. The event was organized by the American-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce (USACC). The event was attended by the ambassadors to the United States of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as high-ranking representatives of the U.S. government and business circles. Discussions focused on the importance of TRIPP for developing regional connectivity and strengthening the United States' sustainable economic presence along the Middle Corridor. The participants came to the unanimous conclusion that the road through Meghri is necessary and beneficial for everyone.

As we can see, the Azerbaijani side initiated the discussions again. Azerbaijan is trying to push for a solution to the issue in order to prevent it from going into the back burner. And he won't. The Armenian side should also be interested in this, because Azerbaijan cannot constantly make gifts without any certainty of prospects. And at the moment, the prospects are vague. Yes, an agreement was reached in Washington on August 8, but nothing has been done in four months towards the practical implementation of the project. Just discussions. Meanwhile, attempts are being made to promote other projects that are less "difficult" but uninteresting to the Azerbaijani side. If the Hrazdan-Dilijan-Ijevan-Gazakh road is more profitable for Armenia to connect with Russia than the Zangezur corridor, then it has no significance for us. If Armenia needs it, it can restore the problematic and unsuitable railway through Ijevan for serious traffic, but this will have nothing to do with the opening of regional communications. There won't be another gift.

As the Azerbaijani expert said, the implementation of projects within the framework of unblocking communications will proceed synchronously. And all processes will be synchronized depending on how things are going on TRIPP. If there is no practical progress in this direction, there will be no progress in other areas. It's a pretty simple formula. Simple and very fair, if we recall the history of the last thirty-five years.