Armenia prepares for a "drone war" - which it will lose miserably

On the night of Wednesday, March 5, Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in the village of Novominskaya in the Krasnodar Territory, flying 230 kilometers, and started a fire. On March 3, Ukraine hit a Ufa refinery with drones. The UAVs caused great damage and caused a fire. They flew more than 2,300 kilometers to their destination. And on February 17, Ukrainian UAVs disabled the largest oil pumping station of the Caspian pipeline Consortium Kropotkinskaya in the Krasnodar Territory.

This news is very inspiring for our neighbors and their advisers. The day before, the French edition of Intelligence Online published an article "Armenia is innovating in all directions to anticipate the next drone war." The author of the article points out that electronic warfare, drones, and data processing software: overcoming Yerevan's weaknesses in previous conflicts in Karabakh is a priority of Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

Although Armenia launched its own drone program back in 2006, it was not possible to make progress in it. The indispensability of unmanned aerial vehicles became clear during the April 2016 battles. At that time, Azerbaijan used kamikaze drones against the occupation units of the Armenian Armed Forces for the first time in the history of conflicts and wars. There was a stir in Yerevan, but not very actively, because they did not expect a full-scale war and, moreover, they were sure that the "April war" was simply an oversight of the powers and would not happen again. In 2019, Yerevan boastfully reported on the creation of its own competitive UAV market.

When the Second Karabakh War broke out in response to another Armenian provocation, Armenia was not technologically ready for it. We can say that the 44-day war was the first war with the use of high-tech products of the military-industrial complex. Baku has reliable partners in the military-technical field with the most advanced weapons production technologies. Armenia doesn't have any even today.

Only a few years after the catastrophic defeat, starting in December 2024, Yerevan, having recovered from the shock, began to actively invest in drones. According to Intelligence Online, he draws inspiration from the experience of the Ukrainian conflict. Technologies from Inogate, Boo Vision, and ADX Systems startups are on trial.

Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan announced the beginning of the modernization of the army. According to sources, in one of the closed reports, he indicated that his department was striving to achieve continuous control of airspace and develop a system for automatic detection and destruction of UAVs. However, the country does not yet have the technical or financial capabilities for this.

By the way, during the trial of Ruben Vardanyan, it became known that earlier this figure had negotiated the acquisition of helicopter-type unmanned aerial vehicles intended for use by illegal Armenian armed groups in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. In addition, the Russian entrepreneur intended to build a drone manufacturing plant, as well as purchase and deliver electronic warfare systems to the occupying forces.

Armenia currently has its own drones in service: the X-55 reconnaissance drone and the Krunk tactical drone, which did not bring it success in the war. Given that Armenia considers itself the "silicon valley" of the Caucasus, they pretend to rely on their own technologies. However, the UAV fleet, apparently, will be formed through foreign purchases.

Since last summer, three French defense industry companies have begun cooperation in the production of components for unmanned aerial vehicles and spare parts for various military equipment, including armored vehicles. The project is being implemented under the direct supervision of the French Ministry of Defense, and the stated goal is to support Ukraine. Later it became known that the products will be supplied to Armenia. It is reported that a third of the equipment for drones and vehicles produced by French companies in Ukraine is also allocated to Armenia.

In 2023, Armenia signed contracts with India for the purchase of Archer attack drones and with France for Aliaca tactical reconnaissance drones.

According to Armenian media, the Armenian Defense Ministry planned to purchase up to 150 Indian drones by the beginning of this year. It is not reported whether the deal has been implemented. However, in early February, it became known that contracts for the supply of 400 UAVs were frozen in India due to the "discovery" of Chinese-made components in them.

There was also information about the conclusion by Iran of a secret deal with Armenia for the supply of weapons worth 500 million dollars, including drones "Shahed-136", "Shahed-129", "Shahed-197" and "Mohajer-6". It was claimed that "hundreds of Iranian drones in Armenia will bankrupt the enemy's air defense." It was even calculated how long it would take such a drone to reach Baku.

The Armenian and Iranian sides immediately denied this information. However, it is well known that there is no smoke without fire. Perhaps the deal was discussed, but did not take place. If the latter, then it was most likely Tehran, not Yerevan, that abandoned it. Meanwhile, the Israeli news channel i24news wrote in July last year that during several recent clashes on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, the Armenian side used "Shaheds" against Azerbaijani positions. "It would not be ridiculous to assume that Israel, which is at the forefront of the production of anti-missile and anti-unmanned technologies, has something up its sleeve to help its main strategic partner," the newspaper wrote, hinting that, no matter what combat performance the Iranian UAVs sold to Armenia possess, Israel will find something to help Azerbaijan in countering them.

As we have already noted, Azerbaijan has reliable partners and friends. The technologies of the Israeli military-industrial complex have been and remain one of the most advanced, if not the most advanced. The Turkish experience in the production of UAVs is also indispensable for us. Thanks to the successful use of the famous Bayraktar tanks during the 44-day war, the fraternal country has become a major exporter of this military equipment. Demand for Turkish drones is still booming. As of December 2024, Bayraktar-TV2 drones had been purchased by thirty countries around the world, including members of the European Union, and four more were in the process of preparing a deal. Nigeria has purchased the most drones, 43.

What Azerbaijan buys and from whom is not information for public discussion or for other people's ears. There is no doubt about one thing - the Azerbaijani army has something to respond to the "drone war" if Armenia decides to declare it.