Iran should not confuse S Caucasus with Middle East

Ongoing peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia could thwart the ambitions and hegemonic desires of many powers in the South Caucasus. It's worth noting that the longstanding Garabagh conflict between Baku and Yerevan has drawn the attention of numerous countries to the region. Alongside the West, Iran, which neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia, has also been somewhat emboldened by this conflict.

Iran's proximity to Armenia, its controversial policies, and its silence over massacres in Azerbaijani territories over the past 30 years are regrettable. During the resumption of the Israel-Palestine war, Iran was among the Muslim countries that initiated protests against Israel. Interestingly, the Islamic Republic of Iran did not mention the existence of mosques converted by Armenians into cowsheds and pigsty, where Muslim Azerbaijanis expelled from their homes by Armenians were relocated. Despite Azerbaijan sharing a border with Iran and Garabagh being in very close proximity, Iran turned a blind eye to Armenia's actions.

In 2020, when the Azerbaijani Army halted Armenian provocations and launched a counteroffensive, Iranian leadership refrained from celebrating it. Even this year, in April, Iran's ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Subhani, held a press conference stating that Armenian soldiers were killed with Israeli weapons during the Second Garabagh War.

It's important to note that Azerbaijan purchased this weaponry and military equipment from Israel with its own funds to liberate its territories from occupation. Official Tehran, however, sent substantial amounts of weaponry and military equipment to Armenia during the 44-day Patriotic War to maintain Azerbaijani territories under occupation.

Interestingly, all official statements from Iran indicate their support for peace. However, Tehran does not specify the form in which they support achieving peace.

It seems that the signing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia does not align with Iran's interests. Just yesterday, another provocative statement by Iran's ambassador in Armenia was reported in the media. He mentioned that the results of Iran's presidential elections today will not bring any change in relations with Armenia. When asked about Azerbaijan, he emphasized that Azerbaijan should avoid using "threatening" language toward Armenia.

By making such provocative statements at a time when events related to border delimitation and demarcation processes are intensifying, he serves the interests of the state he represents.

It's worth noting that Armenia's current leadership's steps towards seeking peace have also caused a cooling in Iran's relations with Armenia. On June 21, Armenia's recognition of Palestine's independence was praised by many Muslim countries. Even President Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally expressed his approval of Armenia's step, stating that he applauded Armenia. Subsequently, all Arab countries declared their positive attitudes towards Armenia's decision.

However, Iran, which has consistently claimed to support Palestine and has established close relations with Armenia as its last ally, drew attention. The fact that Iran did not officially respond to Armenia's decision until a week later, merely stating "applauded," was perceived as ambiguous.

It is evident that Armenia's decision to announce this after the phone call between Pashinyan and Erdogan on June 18, and the statements by Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan regarding normalizing relations with Turkiye, have provoked Iran. It appears that Iran is displeased with Armenia's intentions to normalize and develop relations with Azerbaijan and Turkiye. While Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have been in a state of war for many years, have not discussed a peace agreement in the region for the years, the power dynamics are now changing. The peace process between these two ciountries in the South Caucasus is on the agenda, and whether other regional or foreign countries should accept this reality sooner or later remains to be seen.