Fate of geopolitical pawn: Armenia in regional self-isolation

By Akbar Hasanov, Day.az

“Despite the variety of choices, you have no other alternative”. This was the advertising slogan of one bank, which became popular in the 1990s of the last century. It is still relevant now for assessing possible moves by official Yerevan. Apparently, they made a fatal mistake by believing in the famous promise “The West will help us,” voicing which Ostap Bender trivially deceived the members of the “Union of Sword and Plowshare” he created.

“Garabagh is part of Azerbaijan,” Iranian Foreign Ministry Speaker Nasser Kanaani emphasized. He added that "the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of countries must be respected, and any actions that cause tension must be avoided." He pointed out that “Iran does not support any action against these principles.”

And this is a very correct, and symbolic statement against the backdrop of Yerevan’s attempts to imitate its inability to influence the junta, which seized and maintains power in the Garabagh economic region of Azerbaijan. In conditions where funding for the Garabagh separatists continues to be provided from the state budget of the Armenian Republic, such “pull the wool over your eyes” of the Armenian leadership looks very ridiculous.

Accordingly, the show that the Garabagh junta called “election” could also have been prevented by Armenia, but was not prevented. To put it simply and bluntly, it lied. And all countries in the region already recognize this. Yes, official Yerevan managed to ruin relations with both Iran and Russia, while having an unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan, which is provided with political and moral support by fraternal Turkiye.

Azerbaijan, on the contrary, has very pragmatic, mutually respectful relations with Iran, the Russian Federation, and Georgia. Particular attention here needs to be paid to the latest events in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. In particular, the third meeting of the Joint Commission on Military Cooperation between the Azerbaijan Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran was successfully completed.

A particularly noteworthy point here is that the Iranian military side visited the War Trophy Park in Baku. The delegation led by Major General Mohammed Ahadi got acquainted with the military equipment that Azerbaijan captured as a trophy during the 44-day war, and commemorative photographs were taken. And this was also a very clear message.

Its essence is simple - Iran recognizes the historical importance of Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day war. And this turn of events clearly indicates the failure of Armenia’s foreign policy, which has always strived for cold relations between Baku and Tehran. Now, as we see, relations between our countries have moved to a qualitatively new, positive stage of development.

It is significant that Iranian diplomats were among the representatives of the diplomatic corps accredited in Azerbaijan and military attaches who visited the Aghdam-Khankendi road, where the convoy of the Azerbaijan Red Crescent Society is located with food cargo for the Armenian minority living in the Garabagh region. Representatives of the US and French embassies were not there. But I will return to this point.

In the meantime, I will note that Tehran supports the resumption of the Azerbaijan-Iran-Turkiye format. This was stated last week by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, speaking at a press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. And in this regard, let me also remind you of another recent loud statement.

Contacts outside the 3+3 format (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Turkiye, Russia, and Iran) in the South Caucasus further complicate the situation. This was stated by Vice President of Iran Mohammad Jamshidi on his page on “X” (Twitter), speaking about the details of a telephone conversation between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan.

According to Jamshidi, holding military exercises with other countries and making suspicious trips further complicate the situation. Of course, this suggests that Iran is aware of the various alarming steps taken recently by the Armenian side in the region, and wants regional problems to be resolved by the countries of the region. In particular, the American-Armenian military exercises and attempts by official Yerevan to bring France into our region, to put it mildly, cause dissatisfaction with Iran.

That’s why I’m writing that official Yerevan pushes its luck. It believed too much that the United States and France would help him “weave between the streams.” This is a primitive misconception. Currently, even in Iran the Armenian Republic clearly points out this and here we come to where I started the text. Armenia has no alternative but to agree to everything that Azerbaijan reasonably demands from it. With all the deceptively apparent official Yerevan, there is a variety of choices. Moreover, Armenia has not been and is not a player on the regional political board. It is just a pawn, which was moved by one player or another.