TODAY.AZ / Politics

Azerbaijan-Armenia issue is feasible in more Eurasian context backing 3+3 format, as EU is fairly weak

18 April 2023 [09:00] - TODAY.AZ
By Azernews 

Elnur Enveroglu

I am not sure the European Union can be a really good force for reconciliation in between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as it is fairly weak at the moment. It is a combination of different interests in Europe, Irish historian and political analyst Patrick Walsh said in a comment he made for Azernews.

Seeing the reasons in internal partisanship and division, Walsh also emphasized that the European Union does not have a sufficiently effective role in the South Caucasus issue. He stressed that however, Azerbaijan can succeed in the solution of Garabakh problem once and forever by preferring the 3+3 format.

“As you can see it from the pro-Armenian resolution that they passed recently. I think the South Caucasus, especially Garabagh issue is probably going to be solved in a more Eurasian context involving Turkiye, Russia and even Iran as previously proposed in 3+3 format. I think the economic development is pointing in that direction, and that is the direction of travel. The obvious thing to say against that is we do not know what the result of Ukraine war is going to be. It is in the balance of the present. It looks like Russia has an advantage, but the question is what will the West do next and whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be successful. I think we don’t know the landscape is going to be there after Ukraine war and this why this question is so difficult to answer.”

The Irish political analyst also spoke about the inverse relationship between Europe and France at the Council of Europe and the European Commission. He said that such a course will completely weaken Europe's role in the region in the future. According to Patrick Walsh's opinion, the European Union will not be able to separate France from its pro-Armenian position, therefore the European Union will never be able to demonstrate an objective position on the Garabagh issue.

“There are ongoing divisions within the European Union at present. This can be seen actually in the EU visit with Macron and von der Leyen to China. So, what is opening up is the division between Macron, who believes that Europe has placed itself, essentially as a kind of vessel state of the United States. And the other parts of the EU which are more in favor of the war in Ukraine, and supporting the United States and Kyiv. I think what we have got here is the type of a conflict. Obviously, France is the element in the EU, and is most open to Armenian influence because of its Armenian diaspora.

As regards the EU to hold France back from adhering to Armeniaphilism, I am not certain about this. I think there is going to be a conflict between France and the EU in the coming month unless the Ukraine war finishes. I think the main division is in that area.”

Moreover, touching on several aspects of the recent Armenian provocations whether near the border, beating the Azerbaijani soldiers or burning the national symbol of Azerbaijan, the pundit said it is no more than creating obstructions on the way of normalization process of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as well as Turkiye.
“Armenia is indeed, impeding normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Turkiye, in fact. It is basically adopting an intransigent obstructionist position with the objective of one denying the reality of the war result in 2020. And secondly, is trying to play for time, so that something emerges that will help it out of the position it is in.

The other aspects of the European Championship, I think you know as long as this intransigent obstructionism continues there will not be a peaceful settlement, and as long as there is not a peaceful settlement there is an increasing bitterness developing within Armenia towards Azerbaijan. As Azerbaijan tightens the screw on Armenia in an attempt to hold it to the provision of the trilateral agreement, so essentially I think this is ordinary Armenians heading out at Azerbaijan in increased frustration at the situation,” Walsh added.


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