Georgia can't count on Azerbaijani natural gas

Fortunately, Iran and Azerbaijan both stepped in to alleviate the critical energy shortage with their own natural gas exports. Azerbaijan has proved a reliable partner, and the opportunity must be taken to work out an agreement allowing for more natural gas from the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) gas pipeline to go into Georgia's energy coffers. The Georgian leadership is hoping that, by the end of August, it will have final numbers from the Azerbaijanis on the amount and price of natural gas from the pipeline.

Energy expert Gia Kukhashvili, however, predicts that Georgia will not reach the agreement it needs. Azerbaijan currently uses more natural gas than it produces-and the deficit is made up by over four billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year. For now, they are as much at the mercy of Gazprom as Georgia, and may refrain from making a deal with Tbilisi that could endanger its own energy supply.

What BTE gas Georgia does get will come at a discount. According to the initial agreement, concluded before construction on the pipeline began, Georgia receives five percent of the transit gas for free, and another five percent for USD 55 per thousand cubic meters. In 2007-2008, Georgia will be getting 200-250 million cubic meters per year. By 2010, that amount should go up to 800 million cubic meters-but that covers only 10 percent of the country's yearly demand. When Turkey begins to receive its full share of the Azerbaijani gas, there won't be enough left over for Georgia to more fully meet demand.

However much Georgia gets in the end from the BTE pipeline, though, experts calculate that it simply can't be enough. Georgia's energy supply is still vulnerable, and an unsure winter lies ahead.

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