President Aliyev's address sets clear message to Armenia on peace at impasse

As time stretches into the unknown, the world’s problems persist, and these problems, simply because they were not resolved in time, create a foundation for more complex and deep conflicts to sprout again. Indeed, the national and ethnic struggles, as well as territorial claims that have lasted for more than three decades in the South Caucasus, have today paralyzed the region like an incurable carbuncle and, most importantly, stand as a major obstacle on the path to development.

An international forum, “Facing the New World Order,” was held on April 9 at ADA University, with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan participating.

In his speech and answers to experts' questions, the President touched upon important factors of Azerbaijan's foreign and security policy, as well as the solution to regional problems affecting our country. This important series of events, held since 2021, has managed to come to the fore with its authenticity features and has played a special role in conveying the realities of the era. It has distinguished itself with its geopolitical, regional, and economic relevance. Although the thematic titles of the event already reflect its importance, this year’s forum, like its predecessors, stood out again. The discussion lasted more than two hours and touched on a wide range of topics, but in this article, we draw attention to the most pressing and urgent issues.

First and foremost, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan’s willingness to sign a peace agreement with Armenia. However, he emphasized that two fundamental conditions must be met: Armenia must renounce the Minsk Group and amend its Constitution, which currently contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. “Even if a peace agreement is signed, reconciliation will not come easily,” said the President, reminding that “we will not forget the atrocities committed by the Armenians—genocides, occupation, and the destruction of our lands.” Despite that, Azerbaijan remains ready to create conditions for peace and cooperation in the region.

Yet, a critical question remains: Is Armenia truly ready for peace?

Although Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to show himself ready for peace with Azerbaijan, Armenia does not consist only of Pashinyan. As President Aliyev said at the forum, there are revanchist forces in the neighboring country, and they have raised their heads again. Pashinyan's rating is falling. His party was defeated by revanchist forces in municipal elections in two important cities. These revanchist forces do not hesitate to make statements against Azerbaijan and Türkiye, and voice territorial claims against neighboring countries. How will peace be possible with these forces? This is one of the main questions for us.

“There is a large process of militarization of Armenia. Deadly weapons, which have been supplied by new Armenian friends actually, will not truly lead to peace and stability, it will only lead to potential tension in the future. We know that there are quite strong revanchist groups in Armenia,” the President noted.

Despite the defeat Armenia suffered in the Second Garabagh War, it seems that revanchist sentiment remains unchecked. If a peace agreement is to be signed between the two countries, all forces in Armenia must adhere to the terms of this agreement, otherwise, they will again drag their country into a heavy defeat. As Aliyev emphasized, “the ball is in Armenia’s court.”

Meanwhile, international dynamics on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border remain complicated. Recently, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMA) has increased its presence, especially with expanded night patrols. While officially framed as tension reduction, this coincides with Armenia’s continued militarization and political maneuvering. One cannot help but question: if the war is over and the peace agreement is near, what then justifies the enhanced European footprint? These developments only risk emboldening Yerevan’s provocations.

“How the post-war situation will continue to develop mainly depends on Armenia. We restored our territorial integrity and sovereignty, put an end to separatism, and took control of our borders. For us, this issue is done. But it doesn't mean that we will just ignore potential threats and potential dangers. We must always be ready to push back,” Aliyev warned.

Even as the two countries stand closer than ever to a peace agreement, the growing presence of foreign missions and military hardware on Armenia’s side raises questions about who is truly committed to a peaceful South Caucasus.

“If an agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is signed, then, of course, there will be no obstacle to the beginning of cooperation. I think that we should not lose time, because, with respect to the peace agreement, the ball is on the Armenian side.”

Facing the New World Order: Azerbaijan’s strategic value

Now, there is also one other point that needs to be talked about. The main theme of this whole event...Facing the New World Order.

The concept of a new world order has been discussed for a considerable time, and it is becoming increasingly prevalent with each passing day, week, and month. The reasons for this shift are numerous and evident. On one hand, the United States plays a significant, yet sometimes striking, role in shaping the global political and economic landscape. On the other hand, various parties are either fearful of or seeking to exploit the potential power vacuum that could arise, as well as the looming threat of a "great war." Strong relations with Azerbaijan are very important for this region. Not only as a political need but also as an economic one...

“The world is not as stable as it used to be. We see more conflicts, and we see more contradictions between different centers of power. There’s still a big global player—the United States—and there are those who want to become that player,” said President Aliyev.

In this uncertain landscape, strong relations with Azerbaijan are not just politically useful—they are strategically essential. As a nation that sits at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, plays a key role in energy security, maintains stable partnerships with both the Global South and Western nations, and has proven its military competence, Azerbaijan is uniquely placed to navigate and influence the emerging world order.

“In American national interests, strong relations with Azerbaijan are very important for this region,” Aliyev said.
“Azerbaijan—with a strong position in the Non-Aligned Movement, with our strong connections to Central Asia, economic potential, energy resources, and army which demonstrated its strength on the battlefield, not in the parades—can be a very important partner for the United States.”

The world transitions into a new order where traditional powers are challenged and new alliances are formed. Azerbaijan’s balanced, pragmatic, and forward-looking policy, on the other hand, provides an anchor for stability in a volatile region. Peace with Armenia is still on the table, but it depends on real political will—not only from Yerevan but from its international backers, too. And in this geopolitical chessboard, overlooking Azerbaijan is no longer an option.