US-Israel-Azerbaijan partnership to shape regional dynamics amid peace efforts

United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s visit to Baku elicited speculation both within and outside the country. Since neither the Azerbaijani nor the US sides shed light on the visit, interest in it ramped up.

Emphasizing the coincidence of the visit with positive statements from Baku and Yerevan, some pointed out that the purpose of the visit was to take part in and bolster the peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have been in conflict for over 30 years.

A few days later, the National Security Advisor of the Trump Administration Mike Waltz shared a post on his official X account which may be interpreted as a confirmation. The post reads: “Conflict in the South Caucasus must end. I spoke this week with Mr. Hikmet Hajiyev, the national security advisor for President Aliyev in Azerbaijan. We are pleased Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken a big step forward and agreed to a peace treaty. I told him we should finalize this peace deal now, release the prisoners, and work together to make the region more secure and prosperous. America's Golden Age will bring peace and prosperity to the world, and we won't stop working until that happens.”

On the other hand, the visit took place against the backdrop of news about the U.S.-Israel-Azerbaijan trilateral alliance, Israel’s attempt to include Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords, and Israel’s lobbying for the repeal of Section 907. As such, some believe that the purpose of the visit was to discuss the U.S.-Israel-Azerbaijan trilateral alliance. The prominent Jewish news agency Jerusalem Post also touched on the issue, but unfortunately, did not put some flesh on the bone, merely underlining Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks about his commitment to the trilateral partnership between the countries (Azerbaijan and Israel) in the Knesset, as well as senior rabbis’ appeals to President Trump regarding the repeal of Section 907.

Raza Syed, editor of the London Post, shared his thoughts on the issue and noted that the Trump administration’s foreign policy laid critical groundwork for the U.S.-Israel-Azerbaijan trilateral alignment elevating Azerbaijan as a counterweight to Russian and Iranian influence while deepening ties with Israel through symbolic moves such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and brokering the Abraham Accords.

“This strategy bolstered Baku’s strategic autonomy from Moscow but deliberately sidestepped proactive engagement in Armenian-Azerbaijani peace processes, outsourcing ceasefire negotiations to Russia—a decision that culminated in Moscow’s decisive role in brokering the 2020 Garabagh ceasefire. While empowering Azerbaijan militarily, this approach entrenched Russia’s position as a regional powerbroker, creating a paradoxical dynamic where U.S. partnerships flourished even as Russian security dominance persisted,” the editor pointed out.

He underscored that Azerbaijan’s unique geopolitical positioning—as a Muslim-majority state maintaining robust ties with Israel, energy partnerships with the EU, and pragmatic relations with Russia—has elevated its role as a potential mediator in U.S.-Russia dialogues, particularly amid the Ukraine conflict.

“Baku’s hosting of EU-mediated talks with Armenia and its simultaneous participation in Russian-led economic blocs like the CIS and EAEU exemplify its “multi-vector” diplomacy. Steve Witkoff’s visit likely aims to leverage these dual channels, exploring backdoor avenues for communication on contentious issues such as sanctions evasion or energy security, while testing Azerbaijan’s capacity to bridge divides between Moscow and the West,” R. Syed remarked.

The editor opined that this strategy is not without risks. Azerbaijan’s delicate balancing act between Russia and the West risks overextension, particularly if pressured to take sides in the Ukraine conflict, which could undermine its credibility as a neutral mediator. Simultaneously, heightened defense cooperation between Israel and Azerbaijan—including allegations of Israeli intelligence operations near Iran’s border—threatens to provoke Tehran, escalating regional tensions. These ambiguities underscore the fragility of relying on transactional alliances.

“Ultimately, Witkoff’s mission reflects a broader shift toward transactional multilateralism, where shared security and energy interests eclipse traditional diplomatic frameworks. While the trilateral partnership strengthens deterrence against Iran and reinforces Azerbaijan’s regional clout, it also exposes gaps in sustained U.S. diplomatic investment in conflict resolution. To avoid destabilizing the South Caucasus, Washington must recalibrate its strategy, ensuring tactical gains do not come at the expense of long-term stability. This demands a nuanced approach that balances alliance-building with proactive engagement in peace processes, rather than outsourcing regional diplomacy to rival powers,” he concluded.